uae-residential-market-recalibrates-in-q2-2026

Prime Central London – Q3 2026

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<article>
    <h2>30 Years of Buy-to-Let: From Innovation to Evolution</h2>
    <p>Thirty years of buy-to-let mortgages have reshaped the UK rental market. Their launch in late September 1996 addressed a pressing problem. Rental demand was climbing sharply while available stock struggled to keep pace. The barrier? Homeowners couldn't
        legally sublet on residential mortgages, and commercial lending offered only restrictive ten-year terms with punishing interest rates. The sector's investment potential remained largely untapped.</p>
    <p>Then lenders introduced mortgages designed specifically for landlord investors, marking the first time individuals, not just companies, could secure financing based on a property's rental income potential rather than solely their personal financial
        circumstances.
    </p>
    <p>The landscape changed again from 2015 when George Osborne, then chancellor, introduced sweeping changes. The government scaled back individual landlords' ability to deduct mortgage interest from their taxes and over time introduced more punitive levels
        of stamp duty targeting landlords.</p>
    <p>Since buy-to-let mortgages were introduced in 1996, the number of households renting privately across England has risen by more than 150 per cent &ndash; equivalent to an additional 277 private rented homes per day. Higher mortgage rates and affordability
        pressures in the sales market have almost meant that renters are staying in rented homes for longer, exacerbating demand in a sector already under pressure.</p>
    <h2>How the Renters' Rights Act Is Reshaping London's Market</h2>
    <p>Nearly five months on from the implementation of the Renters' Rights Act, JLL's Residential Rental Index&mdash;which monitors pricing trends and agent perspectives across Finsbury Park, Wood Green, Nine Elms, City, Canary Wharf, Greenwich, Stratford
        and Kew&mdash;reveals a market in good health.</p>
    <p>While 75% of residential offices reported a rise in landlord instructions over the past year, new applicant registrations also climbed in half of JLL's tracked locations. Strong demand, particularly during Q3, has meant that 75% of our residential
        offices have reported a decrease in the number of days properties are spending on the market.</p>
    <p>Summer months often command rental premiums however, a couple of factors have underpinned strong growth this quarter. Heightened student demand has been driven by higher university intake and overseas arrivals. Meanwhile, the Renter's Rights Act means
        that tenants able to hand notice on contracts, which previously may not have ended until later in the year, has meant stock has let earlier than usual, leaving dwindling supplies come the busy summer period.</p>
    <p><em>Figure 1: Market Sentiments-3 Months</em></p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1792130476/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/market_sentiments.png" />
    <h2>Rents Hit 11-Quarter High</h2>
    <p>JLL's residential offices posted some of their strongest quarterly rental growth figures during Q3 2026, with average rents climbing 2.7% - the highest increase we've seen in 11 consecutive quarters. But this headline figure masks a more complex story
        of how the trends are quietly reshaping market dynamics across the capital.</p>
    <p><em>Figure 2: Q3 Growth</em></p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/30589623/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:400px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
    <p>Quarterly growth varied across locations, ranging from 1% to 4.4%. The City led the charge with the highest quarterly increase at 4.4%, followed by Stratford at 3.7% and Nine Elms at 3.3%. Meanwhile, Canary Wharf saw rental growth rebound from -2.1%
        last quarter to 2.3% this quarter.</p>
    <p>Year-on-year growth hit 4% in Q3 - the best performance in seven consecutive quarters and double last quarter's 2%. Annual growth ranged from 1.4% to an impressive 8.3%. Greenwich topped the list with sub-markets recording growth of 5% or more, followed
        by City and Nine Elms.</p>
    <p>Behind these numbers, the Renters' Rights Act has influenced higher asking rents, particularly in areas like Greenwich. Because the new legislation bans offers in excess of asking price, landlords are setting asking prices higher. This, coupled with
        the usual seasonal uptick in activity and a rise in the number of students looking for homes to rent has supported strong rental growth this quarter.</p>
    <p>The new legislation has also influenced levels of available stock. While some tenants used break clauses to move earlier in the year when demand was quieter, the market experienced a notable shift in inventory patterns. The classic supply squeeze,
        coupled with rising demand across summer, has put upward pressure on rents. Despite these seasonal pressures, the market is adjusting to the new regulatory framework, with landlords adjusting their strategies to maintain portfolio performance.</p>
</article>

London's Residential Rental Market: Strong growth supported by uptick in student demand and seasonal activity

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<p><strong>Whisper it, but the UK economy might not be in quite as bad shape as we all thought. Despite gloomy headlines, GDP figures continue to surprise on the upside. As we reported in the last</strong> <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/article/the-residential-roundup-october-2">Residential Roundup</a>, <strong>Q2 growth of 0.5 per cent in Q2 followed a revised-upward 0.6 per cent in Q1, making the UK the strongest performer in the G7 in H1. That said, the weaker performance of our fellow G7 members has helped.</strong></p>
<p>Monthly GDP figures usually deserve a healthy pinch of salt, but even those have outperformed, with 0.4 per cent in July and 0.1 per cent in August both above expectations. Growth in the three months to August also outperformed, rising 0.7 per cent over
    the three-month period. As a result, the IMF has upgraded its 2026 forecast for UK GDP from 1.0 per cent in July to 1.3 per cent in its latest update. Remember, that's against a consensus forecast of 1.1 per cent back in January pre-Iran war.</p>
<h2>Budget watch</h2>
<p>We're only days away from the Budget on 28 October and the kite-flying has, so far, been kept in check. Rumours of a lower threshold for the High Value Council Tax Surcharge (the 'Mansion Tax') have been squashed. It would have had most impact in London
    and the South East, where 86 per cent of all sales between &pound;1.5 million and &pound;2 million took place last year.</p>
<p>John Healey has also ruled out aligning Capital Gains Tax (CGT) with income tax. That could have meant residential property rates rising from the current highest rate of 24 per cent to up to 45 per cent. It always looked unlikely, with many economists,
    including some within the Treasury, arguing that further increases would mean fewer sales and a smaller CGT take. Although this could still be one to watch as further tinkering with rates here may not necessarily be off the cards.</p>
<p>That leaves the Your First Home scheme, where we're still waiting on the income and property price thresholds (which matter a lot for the London new homes market), and council house building, which is also expected to get a nod with detail on how Labour's
    affordable housing plan could take shape. We'll report back once we've digested the news from the dispatch box.</p>


<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/30638962/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:450px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2>London's new homes market</h2>
<p>The latest figures from Molior London illustrate the scale of the challenge facing the capital's new homes market, and why the need for buy side support remains critical. To satisfy the Draft London Plan&rsquo;s annual target of 55,000 homes&mdash;let
    alone the government&rsquo;s 88,000 housing need figure&mdash;would mean rates of sale for private homes would need to reach almost 9,000 homes each quarter, a figure we&rsquo;ve only come close to, at the peak in Q1 2015 (8,600 sales). Yet the latest
    quarterly figures from Molior show just 1,440 new homes sold London wide in Q3 2026.</p>
<p>The weakness runs across buyer types, although institutional activity was particularly quiet over the summer, with sales to companies falling to just over 600 homes. Q3 was the third consecutive quarter when there were fewer than 900 sales to individuals.
    It is hoped that Your First Home can replicate Help to Buy, which supported around 1,100 sales a quarter between 2019 and 2022. However, if we are serious about increasing delivery, we&rsquo;ll need to see more buyers return than simply those with
    help from Your First Home.</p>
<p>Molior recorded just over 7,000 private sales and fewer than 7,200 private starts in the first three quarters of 2026. This alignment shows that developers, understandably, will only build homes they know they can sell. Therefore, to increase development
    activity, we&rsquo;ll need a similar uptick in buyers. There are currently 32,000 private homes under construction, but we&rsquo;ll need to see a considerable increase in activity to get anywhere close to the level required under the Draft London
    Plan. With larger residential developments taking two to three years to build, we&rsquo;d need the number of homes under construction to almost triple to meet the Plan's required 35,000 private completions a year.</p>

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<h2>Prime Central London</h2>
<p>Higher debt costs and uncertainty around politics and economic policy impacts more discretionary markets most significantly. This has continued to hamper activity and the potential for price growth across central London. That said, buyers are still purchasing
    homes in Prime Central London, with more than 450 sales in the quarter&mdash;in line with Q3 last year&mdash;and supported by a strong July of almost 200 sales. But those buying are either waiting for something special to hit the market&ndash;evidenced
    by the two deals we saw earlier this year at or above &pound;200 million&ndash;or are looking for a deal. This means most buyers remain price sensitive, with achieved prices down 1.4 per cent over the quarter and 7.2 per cent on a year ago, but the
    pace of decline has been easing for a few quarters now, with both figures an improvement on Q2 (-2.3 per cent and -7.7 per cent).</p>
<p>The top end has been the most resilient, with the number of homes sold above &pound;10 million up 4 per cent annually, the only price bracket to record growth in sales volumes, and prices in that bracket falling 6.5 per cent, the smallest decline of any
    segment. Houses have also fared better than Flats, with average prices down 4.9 per cent compared with 7.8 per cent.</p>
<p>Wealthy international buyers haven't left, but many are choosing to rent while the UK's economic and political outlook remains uncertain. This helped push the annual number of homes let at more than &pound;3,000 a week up 14 per cent year-on-year. Lettings
    above &pound;100,000 a year, which are exempt from the Renters' Rights Act, rose 22 per cent annually, and monthly lettings in that bracket have run 27 per cent above the January to April average since the Act came into force on 1 May.</p>
<p>The market below &pound;2 million, making up 68 per cent of Q3 sales, faces different pressures. This sector of the prime market is driven largely by domestic buyers, but with Moneyfacts reporting average two- and five-year fixed rates close to 6 per
    cent in October we expect demand there to remain subdued through year-end, or the point at which rates settle and start to become more attractive.</p>
<p style="font-size:14px;">JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

The Residential Roundup - 16 October

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Whisper it, but the UK economy might not be in quite as bad shape as we all thought. Despite gloomy headlines, GDP figures continue to surprise on the upside.

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<h2>UK economy in better shape</h2>
<p>The feel-good factor continued with the Q2 GDP figures, published this week, which showed UK GDP rose by 0.5 per cent in the second quarter, 0.1 per cent higher than forecast. This means the UK saw the highest growth in the G7 in the first half of the
    year. Unfortunately, the outlook for H2 remains more downbeat, but until then it will be seen as a welcome boost in the run up to the Budget.</p>
<h2>More help to buy?</h2>
<p>Labour has promised full details of the Your First Home plan will be released in the October Budget &ndash; now less than four weeks away. However, what we know so far suggests it will enable purchasers in a position to source a 2.5 per cent deposit (alongside
    their buying and moving costs) to borrow an additional 20 per cent from government. Effectively meaning they can approach the market with a 22.5 per cent deposit to secure their first new build home. Like Help to Buy, this 20 per cent loan will be
    interest free for a set period before the government starts to charge interest, with borrowers having to repay the loan on sale. There have been no announcements yet on whether there will be a different deal for London &ndash; remember under Help
    to Buy London buyers could borrow 40 per cent rather than 20 per cent of the purchase price.</p>
<p>Burnham has promised this will be &lsquo;targeted&rsquo;, meaning we&rsquo;re expecting upper price thresholds and/or earning caps determining who can access the new scheme. The level at which these thresholds and caps are set will be fundamental to its
    success, particularly in markets like London where challenges around wage caps set at too low a level are already impacting shared ownership sales.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/story/3829053/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2>So how many new homes could this deliver?</h2>
<p>Help to Buy isn&rsquo;t without its critics, but few will deny that it increased activity in the new homes market, something government needs if it is to deliver more homes at the end of the parliament than the start.</p>
<p>Over its ten-year life, Help to Buy loans were issued for 385,000 properties, of which 82 per cent were for homes bought by first time buyers. With the number of transactions using Help to Buy peaking at more than 55,000 per annum, equivalent to around
    a quarter of all new build sales. Of course these won&rsquo;t all have been additional sales, with a proportion of those who bought arguably still getting onto the housing ladder at some point, albeit possibly buying later.</p>
<p>Setting aside the various yet unanswered questions about the scheme, and assuming common sense prevails on caps and thresholds, eligibility and take up than Help to Buy suggests we could see up to 40,000 more new starts per annum once the scheme is up
    and running. Comparing the number of housing starts in the year post Help to Buy&rsquo;s inception shows a 31 per cent uptick, with a fall in starts of 23 per cent following the scheme winding up back in 2023.</p>
<h2>What about your next home?</h2>
<p>Your First Home bridges the gap for those buyers who have the income to purchase but don't have the means (or access to family support) to raise a deposit. If the scheme provides similar 31 per cent fillip for development, we'd still reach just 170,000
    starts based on current rates, far off the 300,000 let alone the 370,000 target for England.</p>
<p>However, the ongoing challenge of higher mortgage rates will curb enthusiasm and buying power across the market if they persist. Latest figures from the Bank of England show the impact of higher rates on the market, with average fixed rates on all outstanding
    mortgages&mdash;not just new lending&mdash;have risen to 4 per cent, their highest level since 2009 and double the figure five years ago. New lending figures are also being impacted by higher rates and rising uncertainty over the short-term outlook,
    with mortgage approvals falling to a 38-month low in August. The fewer than 55,000 deals approved down 15 per cent year-on-year. Remortgaging activity remains similarly subdued, with home movers unable to benefit from the Your First Home initiative.</p>
<h2>Other news from conference</h2>
<p>The Your First Home plan wasn't the only announcement to come out of the Labour Conference. Amongst a plethora of new plans, Burnham announced Labour's intention to end the triple lock by 2030. Hoping that a new Social Care Pledge will soften the blow
    for pensioners. The downgraded double lock proposes state pensions will rise by the higher of 2.5 per cent or inflation but will be decoupled from earnings. Rumours also persist around the High Value Council Tax Surcharge, with suggestions Healey
    could (and could is doing quite a bit of heavy lifting here) reduce the lower price threshold from &pound;2million to &pound;1.5 million. A move which could double the number of homes within scope.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/story/3829570/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2>Queueing at the Gate(way)</h2>
<p>August marked 12 months since the establishment of the Innovation Unit set up to deal with new build 'high-risk' application. Since its inception median approval times for new build applications have fallen from 43 weeks to 22, with approval rates rising
    from 39 per cent to 92 per cent. Response times are still far off the 12-week target, but the improvement in response time will stand them in good stead as they brace for a flurry of applications in September (August already registered an uptick)
    with applicants keen to submit prior to the introduction of the Building Safety Levy on 1 October. For more information on the Levy please <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/building-safety-levy-guidance/section-1-introduction" target="_blank">click here.</a></p>
<p
    style="font-size:15px;">JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
    <p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

The Residential Roundup - October 2

Housebuilder share prices rallied this week after the announcement at the Labour Party Conference of the new Your First Home plan, effectively Help to Buy 2.0.

<strong>Housebuilder share prices rallied this week after the announcement at the Labour Party Conference of the new Your First Home plan, effectively Help to Buy 2.0. The UK's largest housebuilder Barratt Redrow saw its share price climb to the highest level since the Middle East conflict began in late February, up 40 per cent from its mid-May lows. This follows similar increases for Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and Bellway.</strong>

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<p>Following the September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee held the UK Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent, with the number of doves remaining at six and the hawks (favouring tighter economic policy and higher rates) at three. Despite the position remaining
    the same as at their last meeting, expectations of a rate hike, fuelled by comments from the Governor Andrew Bailey that &ldquo;policy may have to tighten&rdquo;, mean focus has now shifted to the next meeting (post-Budget) on 5th November. This all
    appears to leave the Bank of England as the outlier. But it is important to remember that the UK went into this at a different point in the rate-cutting cycle, with the differential between the UK and ECB rates widening since mid-2024 as they cut
    rates earlier.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1790070596/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Slide1-_Residential_Roundup_-_18_September.png" /><sup>Source: Bank of England</sup>
<h2>Economy</h2>
<p>High oil and energy costs (both a global, not just local, issue) are feeding into higher inflation. The latest CPI figures show the annual rate rising from 2.9 per cent to 3.1 per cent. This wasn&rsquo;t a surprise for economists, but with inflation expected
    to exceed 4 per cent by early 2027, double the Bank&rsquo;s 2 per cent target, it cannot be as easily dismissed as the blip some had hoped for. </p>
<p>As a result, swaps and mortgage rates remain elevated. Moneyfacts figures show average rates on two-year fixes at 5.77 per cent, the highest since May, and five-year fixed rates reaching 5.83 per cent, a level not seen since November 2023.</p>
<p>But another announcement from the Bank of England, this time in relation to gilts, is more welcome. The announcement that the Bank will pause all bond sales for six months or more and hold onto some of its longest-dated gilts was welcomed by the markets.
    As a result, 30-year gilt yields fell 0.12 percentage points to reach 5.74 per cent, marking the best day for markets since May and some much-needed relief from higher borrowing costs </p>
<h2>Housing market</h2>
<p>Rents rose nationally by 3.8 per cent in the 12 months to August, the highest annual increase so far this year. All regional markets except the South East saw rents rise at rates above-inflation, with the North East and North West both recording the highest
    annual increase at 5.8 per cent. In the sales market, just two regions (North East and North West) saw above inflation increases, nationally, prices rose 1.4 per cent, with London and the South West both seeing price falls of -3.3 per cent and -0.2
    per cent respectively.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1790070596/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Slide2-Residential_Roundup_-_18_September.png" /><sup>Source: JLL Research using HomeLet, ONS, Bank of England &ndash; assumes two-year fix at 75% LTV</sup>
<h2>Rent or buy?</h2>
<p>Higher mortgage costs mean that in pricier markets the difference in cost between buying and renting a home is increasing. In London, where almost a third of homes are rented privately, it would cost on average 9 per cent more to buy a home rather than
    rent, based on average values. This compares with the period pre-2022 when buying a home with a 75 per cent loan-to-value mortgage was broadly the same cost. While some buyers could in theory bridge the monthly cost gap to buy a home, the ability
    to save a deposit remains a significant barrier. The average deposit for those looking to put down 25 per cent would be almost &pound;139,000, the equivalent of saving more than five years&rsquo; rent. Even at a 10 per cent deposit, prospective buyers
    would need to save the equivalent of two years&rsquo; rent. </p>
<h2>Housebuilding</h2>
<p>Barratt Redrow, the UK&rsquo;s largest residential developer, has trimmed its annual completion target to 17,500&ndash;17,900 homes, down from earlier guidance of 17,700&ndash;18,200. This follows an improvement in housing delivery in the year to June,
    with 17,667 homes delivered, up 5 per cent on the previous 12-month period. Chief Executive David Thomas pointed to resource-strapped local authorities as one of the reasons behind their expectations of a reduction in output over the coming year,
    with site opening delays limiting the group to around 405 active developments this year. </p>
<p>The financials painted a mixed picture. Statutory pre-tax profit jumped 48 per cent to &pound;363.5m, but adjusted profit slipped 7 per cent to &pound;572.8m as construction costs climbed and house prices edged down roughly 1 per cent. Still, the adjusted
    profit figure beat analyst expectations, sending shares up 11.7 per cent.</p>
<p style="font-size:15px;">JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

The Residential Roundup - 18 September

The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to 1.25 per cent, a 31-year high. This follows similar moves from the Federal Reserve, which increased rates this week for the first time in more than three years, rising to 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent.

<strong>The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to 1.25 per cent, a 31-year high. This follows similar moves from the Federal Reserve, which increased rates this week for the first time in more than three years, rising to 3.75 per cent to 4 per cent. The European Central Bank is in a hawkish mood too, increasing rates by 25 basis points at their September meeting, the second rate rise since June.</strong>

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<article class="rba-rate-rise-content" data-sf-ec-immutable="">
    <div class="article-body">
        <p>Following a series of cuts throughout 2025 that provided relief to borrowers and stimulated the residential property market, the RBA announced on March 17th that the cash rate will increase from 3.85% to 4.10%. This decision comes as headline
            inflation rose to 3.8% in January 2026, with recent Middle East conflict driving substantial fuel price increases that may further contribute to inflationary pressures.</p>
        <p>Homeowners with variable rate mortgages can expect increased repayments, while first-home buyers face further deterioration in affordability as home-buying budgets are reduced. However, investors may benefit as rental demand strengthens when sales
            market affordability declines, with CPI rents often trending in parallel with the cash rate.</p>
        <p>Despite this rate increase, Australia's market fundamentals remain unchanged. Population growth, demographic changes, and chronic supply shortages continue to maintain pressure on prices in both sales and rental markets across Australian cities.
            The underlying strength in population growth and economic activity will continue to drive fundamental demand for housing, suggesting any softening in market activity may be temporary.</p>
        <div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1773927466/resi/AU/Insights/2026.03.18_RBA_Announcement_Blog_v2.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full RBA Rate Rise Market Analysis 📊</a>
        </div>
    </div>
</article>
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Reserve Bank of Australia Raises Cash Rate to 4.10%

The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking the second increase in just over a month as inflation pressures resurface.

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<p>The UAE residential market demonstrated relative resilience during Q1 2026 despite regional conflict impacting transaction activity from late March. Dubai's total sales value reached AED 137.3 billion, with transaction volumes up 3.9% year-on-year, though
    weekly transaction values declined nearly 50% at the conflict's peak compared to pre-conflict averages.</p>
<p>Sales prices continued growing but at a decelerating pace, with Dubai's average prices increasing 9.0% annually, moderating from previous 16-19% appreciation rates. Abu Dhabi's off-plan market drove transaction volumes to more than double year-on-year,
    supported by new project launches, while rental rates showed strong momentum with apartments up 14.3% and townhouses rising 17.8%.</p>
<p>With approximately 59,000 units under construction scheduled for delivery in 2026, the conflict heightened risks to supply-demand equilibrium. Developers began offering incentives including cash discounts, flexible payment plans, and waived fees to maintain
    sales momentum, though these remained constrained to specific segments. The off-plan market showed relative resilience compared to the secondary market, which experienced sharper declines as uncertainty challenged buyer sentiment in certain segments.</p>
<p><strong>For detailed market analysis and insights, <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789547237/resi/gb/cms/News/PDFs/UAE_Living_Market_Dynamics_-_Q1_2026.pdf" target="_blank">download the full Q1 2026 UAE Living Market Dynamics report.</a></strong></p>

UAE Residential Market Demonstrates Resilience in Q1 2026

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<p>The UAE residential market experienced notable recalibration during Q2 2026, with both sales prices and rental rates moderating from elevated levels. Dubai's total sales value reached AED 87.9 billion, though transaction volumes declined 28.6% year-on-year
    as regional uncertainty affected buyer sentiment.</p>
<p>Government intervention defined the quarter, with Abu Dhabi freezing rental increases and Dubai launching the Flexi Rent initiative to improve affordability through flexible payment terms. These coordinated policy measures signal a fundamental shift toward
    enhanced tenant protection and market stability.</p>
<p>With approximately 40,000 units scheduled for delivery in H2 2026, developers are increasingly partnering with international brands to differentiate their offerings amid rising competition. Abu Dhabi showed greater resilience with new rental registrations
    up 9.9% in H1 2026, while quarter-on-quarter trends indicate softening momentum across both emirates as cooling demand and expanding supply continue to reshape the market landscape.</p>
<p><strong>For detailed market analysis and insights, <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789547237/resi/gb/cms/News/PDFs/UAE_Living_Market_Dynamics_-_Q2_2026.pdf" target="_blank">download the full Q2 2026 UAE Living Market Dynamics report.</a></strong></p>

UAE Residential Market Recalibrates in Q2 2026

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<p>As a result, we&rsquo;ve seen further hikes in government bond yields, with UK gilts rising to their highest level since the financial crisis in 2008 or in some cases even longer. 30-year gilts hit 5.89 per cent earlier this week, their highest since
    1998, with 10-year gilts at 5.25 per cent.</p>
<p>This won&rsquo;t be a welcome return to work for Andy Burnham or his new Chancellor, with estimates suggesting higher bond yields could wipe more than &pound;10bn from John Healey&rsquo;s fiscal headroom in advance of the next Budget on 28 October. And
    with the Office for Budget Responsibility running its usual calculations in the run-up, even if conditions improve it&rsquo;s likely that these will feed into their forecast. Meaning the government will be expected to spend more servicing debt.
</p>
<p>There are likely some new leadership wobbles impacting here too, but this is far from a UK specific issue. Indeed, the UK economy has been more resilient than many had expected earlier in the year. Back in January the consensus forecast for UK GDP was
    for growth of 1 per cent in 2026. Following heightened geopolitical uncertainty this dropped back to 0.6 per cent in the Spring, but expectations have returned to January&rsquo;s 1 per cent figure in the latest August consensus numbers. Inflation
    expectations remain higher than they were back in January, but despite recent increases inflation is expected to top out below some of the higher forecasts we&rsquo;ve seen in recent months.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789449805/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Slide1.png" />
<h2>House prices </h2>
<p>Mortgage approvals dropped back in July, with 15 per cent fewer approvals for house purchase than in the same month a year earlier. An assortment of housing stats released over the summer have pointed to what remains a broadly flat market.</p>
<p>The Nationwide House Price Index, the first to report August figures, shows prices were 1.6 per cent higher than they were a year ago. This is a slightly rosier picture than that portrayed by the Lloyds Index (formerly the Halifax House Price Index) which
    puts prices just 0.1 per cent higher than July 2025 (we&rsquo;ll need to wait until Monday for their August number). Most markets have seen marginal price increases, but price growth has remained broadly below inflation. This means that affordability
    continues to improve, at least when viewed on a house price-to-income ratio basis. Nationwide figures show inflation adjusted house prices are 18 per cent lower than they were in Q1 2022 (non-inflation adjusted they are 7 per cent higher) with the
    house price to household income ratio nationally at its lowest since 2014 at 5.6X income. But higher mortgage rates continue to erode the benefits of the increase in spending power.</p>
<h2>Mortgage markets</h2>
<p>Higher bond yields and sticky inflation have impacted swap rates, meaning average fixed rates have crept up in recent months, all at a time when we&rsquo;d been hoping for some respite. Those shopping for a two-year fix are currently paying an average
    of 5.5 per cent according to Moneyfacts, with best-buy rates circa 4.5. This means that homeowners are having to pay more each month to borrow the same amount or if they keep their outgoings the same are forced to borrow less.</p>
<p>If we take an average priced London home, currently &pound;554,000 according to the Land Registry, those purchasing at 75 per cent loan to value over 25-years would be paying just over &pound;2,550 per month for a repayment mortgage at 5.5 per cent. This
    is almost &pound;3,000 a year more than those who managed to secure a 4.5 per cent fix, and almost &pound;6,000 a year higher than if rates were at 3.5 per cent&mdash;the level best-buys hit back in early February.</p>
<p>Or to keep repayments at the &pound;2,000 a month paid at 3.5 per cent buyers paying 4.5 per cent would be borrowing &pound;40,000 less and at 5.5 per cent their borrowing power would be reduced by &pound;76,000.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1789449807/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Slide2.png" />
<h2>Rental Market</h2>
<p>A cautious sales market continues to benefit lettings. July figures from HomeLet show rents rose 4.3 per cent nationally in the last 12 months, with rents in London rising 6 per cent over the same period.</p>
<p>Respondents to the latest RICS survey reported an increase in new tenant enquiries for the seventh consecutive month. Meanwhile, landlord instructions remained down, with a net balance of -22 per cent reporting a fall&mdash;the last time more respondents
    reported an increase was back in March 2022.</p>
<h2>Checking our homework</h2>
<p>With English schools heading back this week it's a good opportunity to check our view on 2026. We reforecast house prices and rents back in May, downgrading our short-term outlook for prices and increasing our rental expectations for 2026. </p>
<p>Using the latest government figures shows average prices are currently 1.2 per cent higher nationally in June than they were in December. We&rsquo;re forecasting the year to end broadly flat (down 0.5 per cent), which would mean a fall in prices of 1.7
    per cent in H2. In London we&rsquo;re expecting prices to fall 2.5 per cent this year. Current annual falls sit at that level, but prices have risen marginally since December, meaning to end the year at 2.5 per cent down we&rsquo;d need a 3.3 per
    cent reduction in prices in H2.</p>
<p>Average rents (for both new lets and existing tenancies from the ONS Private Rents Index) are up 1.9 per cent since December and 3.7 per cent annually. We're forecasting 3.5 per cent for 2026, meaning we'll need a further 1.6 per cent (or &pound;22) increase
    to rents to hit our December forecast. In London we're forecasting 3 per cent this year, rents rose 2.2 per cent to December to July (up 3 per cent annually) meaning just a further 0.8 per cent needed between now and December. Not far off for the
    UK but a bit light for London? We'll need to wait and see. </p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

Residential Roundup - 4 September

With so many returning from their summer break we had hoped to share some more positive news on rates. It’s not all negative, but elevated fuel and energy costs continue to keep the market guessing on inflation, both domestically and overseas. 

<strong>With so many returning from their summer break we had hoped to share some more positive news on rates. It&rsquo;s not all negative, but elevated fuel and energy costs continue to keep the market guessing on inflation, both domestically and overseas.&nbsp;</strong>

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Big Six Residential Development Report - Summer 2026

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Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Cash Rate Steady at 4.35%

RBA holds cash rate at 4.35% as inflation eases to 3.8%. Market caution persists, but strong population growth and supply shortages support long-term housing fundamentals for strategic buyers.

RBA Holds Cash Rate at 4.35% for Second Consecutive Month

The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.35% on August 11th, continuing its 'wait-and-see' approach as inflation eases to 3.8% but remains above the target range. While the hold provides relief from rising borrowing costs, cautious sentiment persists in housing markets. However, strong population growth and housing supply shortages continue to support long-term fundamentals, presenting opportunities for buyers with a medium to long-term investment horizon.

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<h2>UK Economy</h2>
<p>Better than expected news on the UK economy has given the Committee (and Burnham&rsquo;s new cabinet) some breathing space. Inflation (CPI) fell back to 2.6 per cent in the 12 months to June, down from 2.8 per cent in May. Fuel and food underpinned the
    lower than anticipated figure.</p>
<p>But the good news on inflation is expected to be short-lived. Increases in the energy price cap (up 13 per cent from July) and uncertainty in the Middle East have resulted in crude oil prices again exceeding $90 per barrel. As a result, expectations on
    inflation have increased for H2.</p>
<p>News is mixed on the employment market too. On one hand the unemployment rate remains at sub 5 per cent, standing at 4.9 per cent in the three months to April. But there are more people looking for work than jobs available and youth unemployment remains
    a significant challenge. The latest figures from the ONS suggest more than 1 million under-25s are not in education, employment or training (Neets), equating to one in every seven people in that age group.</p>

<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/29885397/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe><br
/>
<h2>Mortgage market</h2>
<p>Mortgage approvals recovered in June, increasing 2.9 per cent to 58,200, according to the Bank of England. But this follows a slow May, when approvals fell 13 per cent&mdash;the steepest monthly drop in 44 months. Despite the rebound, June's figure remains
    10 per cent below the ten-year average. Year-on-year approvals fell 6 per cent.</p>
<p>But ongoing uncertainty around inflation and energy costs means mortgage rates edged up. The Bank of England &lsquo;effective&rsquo; interest rate&mdash;the actual interest paid on newly drawn mortgages&mdash;increased to 4.35 per cent in June from 4.22
    per cent in May. Several lenders have increased their rates in recent days, with Moneyfacts reporting average two-year fixed rates of 5.59 per cent, which is the highest since late June but remains below the recent April peak, when average rates hit
    5.9 per cent.</p>
<h2>New homes</h2>
<p>A new Prime Minister and a significant cabinet reshuffle would have been an ideal opportunity to quietly drop the 1.5 million homes target. But instead, Angela Rayner, back in the housing seat, has reasserted the government&rsquo;s commitment to the target&mdash;albeit
    it&rsquo;s now firmly viewed as an ambition. That&rsquo;s despite no English region delivering anywhere close to the housing need target. London, as we&rsquo;ve discussed before, has the highest target and the widest gap in delivery.</p>
<p>On the face of it the Q2 figures from Molior London were more encouraging. The number of starts rose 31 per cent on Q1 2026 and were almost three times higher than Q2 last year. But this was off a record low base, with quarterly starts just 13 per cent
    of the figure needed to meet the all tenure housing target of 22,000 homes. Private sales in Q2 reached almost 2,800, up 8 per cent on the previous eight-quarter average. But fewer than a third of sales were to individuals, with domestic buyers accounting
    for fewer than 600 sales last quarter. More than 4,600 homes were complete but unsold, the highest Molior London has ever recorded, meaning continued caution around new development is expected in H2 unless we see a significant uptick in take up.</p>
<h2>UK Living</h2>
<p>Investment in the UK Living sector hit &pound;6.5 billion in H1&mdash;a respectable showing that masked significant quarterly variation. Q1's momentum moderated as Q2 volumes dropped by half, signalling investor caution as the year progressed.</p>
<p>Build-to-rent emerged as the standout performer, posting its second strongest half-year performance on record. The sector's success hinged almost entirely on Morgan Stanley and Ridgeback&rsquo;s &pound;1 billion+ acquisition of Metra Living. Strip out
    this deal, and BTR's underlying activity tells a more measured story. The sector also witnessed a notable structural shift: multifamily assets now command 85 per cent of investment, last year it was broadly 50/50 multifamily to single. Perhaps most
    striking, forward investment has declined to record lows, suggesting developers are pulling back on speculative commitments whilst investors prefer seasoned, income-producing stock.</p>
<p>Student accommodation proved more volatile quarter-to-quarter. A strong Q1, buoyed by Unite&rsquo;s purchase of Empiric Student Property, gave way to a considerably quieter second quarter&mdash; as transaction volumes fell to their lowest level in a decade.</p>
<p>Healthcare provided the steadiest hand, returning to normalised deal flow after a record Q4 2025. Transaction sizes have reverted to more typical levels, though the sector enters H2 with renewed optimism following Blue Owl's entry into the market&mdash;a
    signal that North American capital continues eyeing UK healthcare as demographic tailwinds strengthen.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, H2's trajectory depends on whether institutional buyers accelerate deployment or maintain Q2's more cautious stance.</p>

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/>
<h2>Northern markets lead the pack</h2>
<p>Rents rose 3.3 per cent in the 12 months to June, according to the latest figures from the ONS. Rental growth outpaced house prices, which rose 2.7 per cent in the latest monthly figures. Comparing government figures shows that only one month (April 2026)
    since the start of 2023 have house prices outperformed rents.</p>
<p>The strongest performing region for both rental and house price growth was the North East, with prices rising 5.9 per cent and rents 6.3 per cent in the latest monthly data. Zoopla data shows the North East was the only region that saw an increase in
    sales agreed in July, with 4 per cent more homes going under offer. Nationally volumes fell 9 per cent.</p>
<p style="font-size:15px;">JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

The Residential Roundup

This month’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee resulted in the fifth consecutive hold decision. The committee voted six to three to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent.

This month&rsquo;s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee resulted in the fifth consecutive hold decision. The committee voted six to three to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent.

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JLL PCL Report - Q2 2026

The JLL Q2 2026 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

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<p>Cronulla is Sydney's only train-accessible beach suburb, located 30km south of the CBD with a 50-minute commute. This coastal peninsula combines relaxed beachside living with urban convenience, featuring vibrant dining, shopping precincts, and water-sport
    facilities.
</p>
<p>The market is characterized by strong professional demographics, with apartment-style living dominating the landscape. Limited supply due to natural boundaries and established infrastructure creates compelling investment fundamentals, supported by consistent
    price growth and rental demand.</p>
<p>The guide highlights Cronulla's unique position as a mature coastal precinct offering lifestyle without compromise, insulated from overdevelopment while maintaining excellent city connectivity.</p>
<table>
    <tbody>
        <tr style="height:100%;">
            <td style="width:100%;">
                <p style="text-align:center;"><br /><a href="https://asset.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm/116dfacb73865066c9a09d516f2cb76a" target="_blank">Download the Cronulla Buyer Guide</a></p>
            </td>
        </tr>
    </tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>

Cronulla Buyer Guide

Cronulla, 30km south of Sydney's CBD, offers idyllic coastal living with stunning beaches accessible by direct train in 50 minutes. 

Cronulla, 30km south of Sydney's CBD, offers idyllic coastal living with stunning beaches accessible by direct train in 50 minutes. This vibrant peninsula community blends relaxed waterfront culture with urban convenience, featuring excellent dining, shopping, water sports, and the Sharks NRL team, creating perfect balance between beachside escape and city accessibility.

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Australian Apartment Market Overview Q2

JLL's inaugural Australian Apartment Market Outlook examines the key trends shaping Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane's apartment markets through Q22026.

Australia's apartment market pivoted in Q2 2026 as federal tax reform, RBA rate increases, and state budget shifts converged. Sentiment turned cautious after a strong start.

Australia's apartment market experienced a significant pivot in Q2 2026 as federal tax reform, consecutive RBA rate increases, and state budget commitments converged within a compressed timeframe. Market sentiment has turned cautious following a strong start to the year, with sale price momentum moderating and transaction activity softening across most capital cities.

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<p>London's rental market has entered a period of adjustment in Q2 2026, as new legislation reshapes landlord strategies across the capital. The JLL Rental Index tracks average rents and agent sentiment within London, across the following JLL office patches:
    Finsbury Park, Wood Green, Nine Elms, City, Canary Wharf, Greenwich, Stratford and Kew.</p>
<p>This quarter tells a story of market adaptation. The Renters' Rights Act has prompted landlords to withdraw properties from rental stock, hoping to pivot toward the sales market. However, a weaker sales market means many have been forced to return to
    the rental market under more challenging conditions as they struggle to sell.</p>
<p>Despite turbulence in the sector, average rents across JLL offices rose 1% over the quarter, recovering from a quarterly decline of 0.4% in Q1. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Meanwhile, average annual growth accelerated to 2.3% in Q2, up from 2% last quarter. Greenwich leads at 6.4%, achieving its highest annual increase since Q2 2024.</p>
<p>According to Dataloft, available stock to rent in London has expanded dramatically to 165,275 properties in June 2026, representing a 72% surge from the same period the previous year. Yet demand fundamentals remain robust, supported by return-to-office
    momentum and a weaker sales market as those who may have thought about buying over the past year put decisions on hold due to higher mortgage rates.</p>
<h2>Greenwich Dominates Q2 Performance with Strongest Quarterly and Annual Growth</h2>
<p>Quarterly rental growth across JLL offices strengthened in Q2 2026, with average growth reaching 1%. Greenwich emerged as the top performer with rents rising 2.9% over the quarter. Within Greenwich, the Blackheath sub-office posted the highest gain at
    7.6%.
</p>
<p>The City followed with 2.7% quarterly growth, driven by its EC1 sub-office which showed a notable 4.8% jump this quarter as activity picked up for the usual summer season. Canary Wharf was the only declining market, while Kew remained flat and Wood Green
    showed minimal movement (+0.4%). Other offices reported moderate growth as the Renters' Rights Act continues to drive private landlord exits, with institutional Build-to-Rent operators gaining market share as this transition unfolds.</p>
<p>Comparing current market performance with Q2 2023 reveals we&rsquo;re in a softer growth environment now. Three years ago, the Help to Buy policy had ended for all completions and the Building Safety Act (Gateway 2 and 3) was introduced for high-risk
    buildings over 18m tall. Back then, average quarterly rental growth across all offices stood at 2.3%, notably higher than this quarter's 1% average. All offices reported quarterly growth ranging between 1.4% and 3.7% in Q2 2023, compared to this quarter's
    -2.1% to 2.9% range, highlighting the moderating effect of current regulatory pressures on rental growth momentum.</p>

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<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Annual growth shows all offices reporting positive performance, with Greenwich recording the highest at 6.4%, its strongest increase since Q2 2024, when it reached 7.5%. The City followed with 3.6%, showing notable improvement after three quarters hovering
    around 1% annual growth. Finsbury Park and Canary Wharf remained below 1% growth. Remaining offices showed gains between 1.8% and 2.7%. Beyond legislative pressures, these varying performances reflect what each area offers through supply, local amenities
    and transport links that shape tenant demand across different locations year-on-year.</p>
<h2>Long-Term Growth Continues Upward Trajectory with Nine Elms Leading this quarter</h2>
<p>Five-year rental growth across JLL offices remain strong at 43.5% in Q2 2026, higher than last quarter average of 41.9</p>

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        <tbody>
            

            <tr>
                <td><strong>Offices</strong></td>
                <td><strong>5 year Growth</strong></td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Nine Elms</td>
                <td>54.6%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>City</td>
                <td>51.0%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Canary Wharf</td>
                <td>50.3%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Greenwich</td>
                <td>46.9%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Wood Green</td>
                <td>43.4%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Finsbury Park</td>
                <td>38.7%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Kew</td>
                <td>31.7%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Stratford</td>
                <td>31.4%</td>
            </tr>
        </tbody>
    </table>
</div>
<p><sup>Source: JLL Research, 2026</sup></p>
<p>Nine Elms leads five-year growth at 54.6% growth this quarter, maintaining its momentum over the last eleven quarters followed by City and Canary Wharf. The Bank of England held the Bank Rate at 3.75% in June, higher than pre-2021 levels. More first-time
    buyers and home movers are delaying purchases, while relying on renting, driving sustained demand and upward rental pressure across London's markets.</p>
<h2>Market Sentiments Point to Easing Applicant Numbers and Rising Landlord Engagement</h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/29623718/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:368px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The rental market is telling a nuanced story across four key indicators, with the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act reshaping traditional patterns. Landlord instructions have notably increased across seven offices over the last quarter. This surge in stock on
    the market is likely to contain rental growth to moderate levels over the summer as tenants have greater choice. Days on market have extended across five offices in Q2 as new tenants take time to weigh options before committing.</p>
<p>New applicant registrations show easing momentum, with six of eight offices reporting a decrease over the last three months. Renewals have also increased, with seven offices reporting growth over the quarter as existing tenants priorities stability. Despite
    short‑term market adjustments around the Renter&rsquo;s Rights Act, summer activity is beginning to pick up in line with traditional seasonal patterns, indicating early signs of recalibration as the market adapts to the new regulatory landscape.</p>

London Rental Market Q2 2026: Regulatory Pressures Reshape Landscape

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<p>A national affordable housing programme appears to be near the top of the agenda, run from No.10 North, but key details on the direction of travel of a Burnham government, and an idea on who&rsquo;ll be taking the top jobs remain a closely guarded secret.
    We&rsquo;ll need to wait to hear more on that, but as mayor of Greater Manchester his track record on housing leaves some reasons to be cheerful. So, can &lsquo;Manchesterism&rsquo; translate on the national stage?</p>
<h2>What Would a Burnham Housing Agenda Look Like?</h2>
<p>His proposed national affordable housing programme, potentially run from a northern power base, suggests a decisive shift towards social housing expansion&mdash;a marked departure from recent governments' market-led approach. Even if (well-placed) scepticism
    reigns on how this would be funded.</p>
<div style="max-width:1200px;margin:24px auto;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1783318977/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Residential_Roundup_-_July-inline1.svg" alt="Greater Manchester housing delivery doubles since 2017" style="width:100%;height:auto;" /></div>
<p>Burnham's previous comments about bond markets have raised eyebrows, and his choice of Chancellor will prove crucial: a left-leaning appointment like Ed Miliband might unsettle markets already jittery about fiscal policy, potentially pushing mortgage
    rates higher and dampening buyer demand. A more centrist pick could ease concerns but would signal policy constraints that might limit his affordable housing ambitions.</p>
<h2>The Manchester Track Record</h2>
<p>On Burnham's watch, Greater Manchester has delivered one in every 21 new homes built across England since 2017&mdash;up from one in 32 in the eight years prior.</p>
<p>Since Burnham's first mayoral victory in May 2017&mdash;he's won twice more since&mdash;Greater Manchester has averaged nearly 10,900 net additions annually. This equates to 79 per cent of its current housing need target, outstripping England's 62 per
    cent average. Between 2017 and 2025, housing delivery across Greater Manchester surged 116 per cent compared to the preceding eight years, dwarfing the increase nationally of 42 per cent over the same period.</p>
<p>In the eight years since April 2017 Greater Manchester recorded almost 87,000 net additions, more than double the 40,000 in the preceding eight years. Delivery increased across England too, although the move from 1.2 to 1.8 million net additions was more
    modest. If England had matched Greater Manchester's 116 per cent growth rate in housing delivery since 2017, we would have added, on average, an additional 120,000 homes per annum, bringing annual net additions to 350,000&mdash;just 20,000 shy of
    the government's 370,000 target.</p>
<p>Of course this wasn&rsquo;t solely attributable to Burnham, with critics arguing he was in the right place at the right time to capitalise on the momentum which was clearly building. Wherever the truth lies, the results show Greater Manchester has seen
    higher economic growth and elevated housing delivery under Burnham&rsquo;s tenure. Gross value added (GVA) across the metropolitan area&mdash;essentially the value of goods and services produced&mdash;shows Greater Manchester has experienced a 37
    per cent rise since 2017, outpacing growth nationally of 10 per cent over the same period. Applying Manchester growth rate to national GVA implies a further &pound;617 billion of additional GVA could have been created if the UK had followed a similar
    path to Greater Manchester&rsquo;s.</p>
<div style="max-width:1200px;margin:24px auto;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1783318977/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Residential_Roundup_-_July-inline2.svg" alt="market momentum sees more affordable  homes delivered" style="width:100%;height:auto;" /></div>
<p>Again, we need to be careful labelling this as the &lsquo;Burnham effect&rsquo;, with Greater Manchester GVA also outperforming the UK average prior to Burnham&rsquo;s tenure. But the continued growth and ambition across the city have been palpable in
    the last decade.
</p>
<h2>Affordable housing</h2>
<p>With Burnham pledging to build more social homes, his record on affordable housing will come under increased scrutiny. Delivery of high rise residential in the centre of Manchester and Salford has focussed on private sale or build-to-rent rather than
    affordable, a deliberate plan to bring younger professionals into the city core. But across Greater Manchester affordable housing delivery has totalled almost 17,000 homes between 2017 and 2025, around 19 per cent of total delivery. This lags the
    25 per cent achieved nationally over the same period. But a higher percentage of a smaller number doesn&rsquo;t mean more homes. Growth in affordable housing delivery still outperforms, with the eight years post the first Mayoral election in 2017
    seeing 28 per cent more affordable homes delivered across Greater Manchester than in the previous eight, while nationally numbers rose 16 per cent over the same period.</p>
<h2>The Scale-Up Question</h2>
<p>It looks likely we&rsquo;ll soon discover whether &lsquo;Manchesterism&rsquo; represents a genuine blueprint for national housing delivery. Of course, local success doesn't automatically translate nationally, and a mayoral authority of 3 million people
    differs from governing more than 60 million across vastly diverse communities. Burnham's challenge will be replicating success whilst navigating parliamentary politics, Treasury constraints, and regional interests far removed from Manchester's urban
    development dynamics.</p>
<p>The residential sector faces genuine uncertainty. Bond market jitters and mortgage rate sensitivity could offset policy improvements. Planning reform that works in theory often stalls in practice and affordable housing programmes require sustained funding
    commitments that cross electoral cycles. Industry capacity itself poses limits, construction sector labour shortages, supply chain constraints, and planning department under-resourcing won't disappear with political will alone. Scaling Manchester's
    116 per cent growth to national level demands infrastructure, skills, and institutional capacity alongside policy change.</p>
<p style="font-size:14px;">JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p style="font-size:12px;">Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</p>

Following Starmer’s resignation the clock is ticking, and if Andy Burnham remains uncontested, he could be in No.10 (either in SW1 or M1) in a matter of weeks.

<strong>Following Starmer&rsquo;s resignation the clock is ticking, and if Andy Burnham remains uncontested, he could be in No.10 (either in SW1 or M1) in a matter of weeks.</strong>

https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1783320626/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/residential-roundup-manchester-2.jpg

<p>London's economic success has always relied on its ability to attract and retain talent. But a structural crisis in the housing market is quietly eroding that foundation, pricing out the very workforce that keeps the city running.</p><h2>The scale of the problem</h2><p>The numbers paint a stark picture. Since 2015, London rents have grown at approximately three times the rate of entry-level salaries. Today, 90% of young professionals aged 22&ndash;39 cannot afford to rent a home alone in the capital.</p><p>This isn't simply about individual hardship. One in three London businesses now report housing costs as a significant barrier to recruiting junior staff, with growing numbers relocating functions out of the capital as a direct result.</p><h2>A shrinking market serving fewer people</h2><p>The private rental sector is contracting precisely when demand is surging. Government figures show the number of private rented homes in London fell 6% in the latest annual data, driven by regulatory changes and sustained landlord exits from the market.</p><p>Meanwhile, the limited new supply being delivered targets higher-earning professionals to remain financially viable. Build-to-Rent studios and co-living units in Zones 2-3 command rents between &pound;1,500 and &pound;2,800 per month&mdash;pricing out
    half a million single renters who cannot access even the cheapest purpose-built rental homes.</p><p>The result is a clearly defined market failure: a 'missing middle' of young Londoners earning too much to qualify for social housing, yet too little to afford much of London's private rental stock within reasonable reach of work.</p><h2>Three solutions to unlock affordable supply</h2><p>The crisis is structural and will not be solved by existing market forces alone. JLL has identified three policy levers that, taken together, can unlock genuinely affordable rental supply for the squeezed middle:</p><h3>1. Site viability reform</h3><p>Development appraisals are under severe strain. While emergency measures have reduced affordable housing requirements from 35% to 20%, many sites still won't be deliverable. A more constructive conversation about permanently reducing these thresholds
    is needed, acknowledging that the challenge is delivering any homes at all.</p><h3>2. Professionalising the HMO sector</h3><p>For many young Londoners, renting a room in a House in Multiple Occupation remains the most accessible route into the private rental market. Yet HMO numbers are falling due to licensing requirements, compliance costs and the general landlord exodus.</p><p>Policy reform is needed to encourage professionally managed, purpose-built HMO stock at scale. Tax reform, a single national licence for accredited operators, and a distinct planning use class would streamline compliance and encourage institutional investment.</p><h3>3. Compact studio models</h3><p>Current space standards, while well-intentioned, are partly responsible for the affordability crisis we now face. A compact urban studio of 18&ndash;22sqm&mdash;with a bed, kitchenette, en-suite shower room and access to communal kitchen space, without
    expensive amenities&mdash;could be delivered at price points genuinely accessible to most young professionals and key workers.</p><p>International precedent from Tokyo, Amsterdam and New York demonstrates that space-standard flexibility can work within major urban planning frameworks without compromising quality.</p><h2>An opportunity for investors</h2><p>For investors, these solutions represent a compelling opportunity to broaden portfolios beyond current premium products. Mass-market rental homes built for the squeezed middle would carry structurally high demand, low void risk and durable income streams.</p><p>The model offers a route for private capital to deliver something that is both commercially rational and socially responsible&mdash;at a moment when the city most needs it.</p><h2>The path forward</h2><p>Addressing London's rental crisis requires alignment across planners, employers and investors. By focusing on the fundamentals&mdash;viability, supply, and homes sized to genuine affordability&mdash;we can begin to close the gap for London's missing middle
    and secure the city's future as a vibrant, accessible hub for global talent.</p><p><strong>Download the full report:</strong> <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1783315064/resi/gb/cms/News/PDFs/The_Missing_Middle.pdf">[link]</a></p><p><strong>For expert advice on residential investment opportunities, <a href="https://internationalresidential.jll.com.my/#contact-us">contact our team.</a></strong></p>

London's Missing Middle: How the rental crisis is undermining the capital's competitiveness

90% of young professionals can't afford to rent alone in London. Discover JLL's three policy solutions to unlock affordable rental supply for the missing middle.

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<article class="rba-june-content" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div class="article-body"><p class="lead">As the dust settles on the 2026-27 state budget season, a powerful and unified theme has emerged across Australia: fixing housing is a critical priority. Faced with ongoing pressure on affordability and supply, state governments have delivered
            budgets featuring billions in funding aimed at building more homes faster and creating new pathways to home ownership. Two dominant strategies are being utilized&mdash;significantly boosting housing supply by cutting red tape and funding supporting
            infrastructure, and providing direct financial relief to help more people, especially first home buyers, enter the market. Nearly every state has allocated significant funding to unlock land, streamline planning approvals, and invest in enabling
            infrastructure like water, power, and transport, with the goal of reducing development bottlenecks and getting new homes built more quickly. However, success will depend on execution and coordination between government and industry, particularly
            as these initiatives intersect with recent federal tax reforms to Capital Gains Tax and negative gearing restrictions, creating a complex landscape where buyers, developers, and investors must navigate new state incentives, federal tax rules,
            and economic headwinds simultaneously.</p><div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm/image/upload/v1782717882/Residential%20AU/Residential_Insight_-_State_Budgets_2026-27.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full Report 📊</a>
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Housing Front and Centre: Round-Up of 2026-27 State Budgets

Australia's 2026-27 state budgets prioritize housing with billions committed to boost supply through streamlined planning and infrastructure investment, while providing enhanced financial support for first home buyers amid complex federal tax reforms and economic headwinds.

Australia's 2026-27 state budgets commit billions to boost housing supply via streamlined planning and infrastructure, while supporting first home buyers amid federal tax reforms and economic pressures.

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<article class="rba-june-content" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div class="article-body"><p class="lead">This decision signals a period of cautious stability for Australian housing markets.</p><p>Headline inflation has eased to 4.2% in April 2026, down from 4.6% in March, while trimmed mean inflation rose marginally to 3.4% from 3.3%. Both measures remain above the RBA's 2-3% target range. The RBA noted that disruption to global oil supply
            is directly adding to inflation and has been passing through to prices of other goods and services.</p><p>The rate hold brings relief to homeowners facing cost-of-living pressures and provides prospective buyers an opportunity to assess the market from a position of relative stability. First-home buyers can more accurately evaluate borrowing capacity
            and make purchasing decisions without several market factors shifting simultaneously.</p><p>Despite near-term headwinds from softening year-on-year sale price growth and auction clearance rates in some locations, JLL remains confident in the fundamental drivers supporting Australia's housing markets. Population growth and chronic supply
            shortages across major cities ensure that housing demand consistently outpaces supply, underpinning long-term value.</p><div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1782325953/resi/AU/Insights/Residential_Insight_-_RBA_June_Meeting.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full RBA June Meeting Analysis 📊</a>
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Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Cash Rate at 4.35%

The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35% on June 16th, 2026, marking a pause in the tightening cycle after three consecutive increases through the first half of 2026.

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<article class="state-of-origin-content" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div class="article-body"><p class="lead">Brisbane's median apartment price currently sits at $759,000 as of May 2026, offering significantly better value than Sydney's $830,000 median. In Brisbane, this buys a two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartment in the inner city with river views and
            high-quality amenities. In Sydney, the same price often fails to secure even a one-bedroom apartment in the inner city.</p><p>Rental affordability also favors Queensland, with Brisbane rents at $660 per week compared to Sydney's $750 per week&mdash;a difference of nearly $4,700 annually. Brisbane's rental vacancy sits at just 0.8%, supporting continued rental growth
            with strong underlying demand.</p><p>Queensland's population surge continues, with a net gain of 19,000 interstate migrants in the 12 months to September 2025, while New South Wales experienced a net loss of 23,000 migrants. However, New South Wales is staging a comeback, with interstate
            migration losses reducing by 5,200 during the same period, and Sydney's apartment market showing year-on-year growth rates at their highest since mid-2022.</p><div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1781557422/resi/AU/Insights/JLL_Residential_Insight_-_State_of_Origin.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full State of the Market: Queensland vs NSW Analysis 📊</a>
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State of the Market: Queensland Dominates Property While The Blues Eye Series

Queensland continues to dominate Australia's residential property market with Greater Brisbane's median apartment price growing 17.3% in the 12 months to May 2026, while Sydney saw only 5.9% growth during the same period.

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<p><strong>UKREiiF reflections: Morgan Skillen shares her thoughts on sector challenges and opportunities from a Next Generation perspective</strong></p>
<p><em>Morgan Skillen, Surveyor - Housing Consultancy at JLL</em></p>
<p>This year marked my first time attending UKREiiF &ndash; The UK&rsquo;s Real Estate Investment and Infrastructure Forum, a multi-day conference that&rsquo;s essentially the Glastonbury of the real estate world. All the big names were lined up to headline
    and everyone and their neighbour was attending.</p>
<p>Heading up to Leeds last week, I was a little apprehensive as to what the event would be like. In a male-dominated industry with only 20% of RICS members being female and the number dropping significantly further as you move to RICS fellow level, I considered
    whether there would be many &ldquo;only woman in the room&rdquo; moments. However, I was pleasantly surprised by the diversity across the panels I attended and the wider delegate base. That said, upon arrival, there was still a sea of navy suits and
    gilets along Armouries Way! <strong></strong></p>
<h2>A market under pressure</h2>
<p>One key takeaway from UKREiiF is that the real estate market is facing pressure from all angles - no surprise there, right? The challenges across each sector were widely discussed, with common themes emerging around viability constraints, lack of funding,
    and the need for private-public partnerships.</p>
<p>As a surveyor, specialising in Affordable Housing, I&rsquo;ve always taken a keen interest in the living sector, which is why I found Bevan Brittan&rsquo;s breakfast event on<em> &lsquo;The Future of the Living Sector&rsquo; </em>incredibly thought-provoking.</p>
<p>It moved beyond the current macroeconomic environment we are all very well versed in and focused on the operational challenges arising from the Renters Reform Act 2026. &nbsp;Discussions also explored whether we are shifting to a predominantly renting
    society and how viability challenges are in turn, putting an affordability strain on the middle-market homeowners and renters.&nbsp; These themes were echoed across the conference, along with discussion on how to overcome the wider challenges faced
    by the housing market. </p>
<p>One of the primary discussion points was investment and funding. At a panel on &lsquo;<em>Unlocking affordable homes to power growth in the south west&rsquo;</em>, Selina White, CEO of Manna Housing, shared a compelling statistic for further investment
    into affordable housing: &ldquo;For every &pound;1 invested in affordable housing, c.&pound;3 is generated for the local economy.&rdquo; This is driven by the construction phase but continues as new residents bring more local spending into the economy.
    Interest in entering the affordable housing market has increased, with more investors looking at the market. However, patient capital willing to take a long-term view is essential to help with the delivery of more affordable homes.</p>
<p>The collective view from UKREiiF was clear: investment and public-private partnerships are not just beneficial but essential to addressing the housing crisis but these are not without challenges. However, most affordable homes will still likely be delivered
    by not-for-profit Registered Providers via direct delivery/Section 106. In the midst of all the discussions on the challenges facing the market, there was an air of positivity noting that the residential market is resilient and people are optimistic
    that there are routes forward to be found. </p>
<h2>A Next Generation perspective</h2>
<p>I was invited to attend UKREiiF, as part of the Next Generation contingent. This is targeted at young professionals early in their real estate careers. I am 26 years old, and have been with JLL for almost 4 years, starting out on their graduate scheme,
    before becoming a permanent member of the Affordable Housing Consultancy team.</p>
<p>As referenced above, this was my first large-scale conference, and I was slightly unsure what to expect. Attending an event with many senior and influential people, is a little daunting to say the least. In the build-up to the event, I started to get
    that &ldquo;first day of school&rdquo; feeling and was hoping that the big kids would be nice to me! What I experienced was the best outcome that could be hoped for; there was no difference in treatment between me, a young, female, first-time conference
    attendee, and more senior people in the sector. I was actively involved in conversations, my questions in seminars were engaged with and my thoughts were heard.</p>
<p>During UKREiiF, I had a few insightful conversations with several senior people, two common threads emerged in their careers: confidence and sponsorship &ndash; the impact of having a senior person believe in them, encourage them to seize opportunities,
    and on occasion, actively create opportunities for them. </p>
<p>This is something I've benefited from personally at JLL, and I am committed to paying it forward. I hope to see more of this across the industry, particularly from senior leaders supporting up-and-coming professionals in their company and sectors.</p>
<p>My key takeaways from UKREiiF on a personal level, which I will carry with me into future conferences and advice I will share with other first-time conferences goers is, to absorb the atmosphere, learning everything you can but also to back yourself.
    Have the confidence to ask the questions, engage in conversations and share your thoughts when you have a perspective.</p>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>

UKREiiF reflections: Morgan Skillen

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Fixing London’s New Homes Market

Our Q2 2026 London New Homes Report is here. Download now for the latest market intelligence and expert insights on London's housing sector.

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<p><strong>The JLL Rental Index reports average rents and agent sentiment within London, across the following JLL office patches: Finsbury Park, Wood Green, Nine Elms, City, Canary Wharf, Greenwich, Stratford and Kew.</strong></p>
<h3>Market summary - Q1 2026</h3>
<ul>
    <li><strong>Average rents across JLL&rsquo;s eight London offices rose 2% annually in Q1 2026.</strong></li>
    <li><strong>Greenwich and Canary Wharf recorded the highest annual rental growth in Q1, at 4%.</strong></li>
    <li><strong>All offices have reported an increase in lease renewals in the first three months of the year. The City is the only office patch which has reported no change in lease renewals over a 12-month period.</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>Rising levels of supply and softening tenant demand have defined the London lettings market over the past twelve months. In turn, landlords have found themselves in a more competitive environment, putting downward pressure on rental growth across the
    capital. </p>
<p>Average rents across JLL's London offices rose by 2% annually in Q1 2026, with Greenwich and Canary Wharf outperforming, recording growth of 3.7% and 3.8% respectively.</p>
<p>We have seen a clear shift in tenant behaviour over the past two years; properties are taking longer to let, and renewal rates have risen as tenants choose to stay put rather than move, in order to avoid higher rents. Meanwhile, we expect some landlords
    to exit the rental market in the coming months prompted by the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act and higher taxation. However, we do anticipate the traditional spring and summer uptick in home mover activity to provide some opportunity for rental growth in
    the coming months. </p>
<p>In markets such as Finsbury Park, higher levels of supply have limited rental growth over the past year, while strong demand across The City and Canary Wharf have kept rents stable &ndash; a trend we expect to continue over the next two quarters as we
    see students and graduates securing homes for the 2026/27 academic year.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/29067356/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe><br />
<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2>Annual rental growth: Canary Wharf and Greenwich are top performers<strong><br /></strong></h2>
<p>Canary Wharf and Greenwich were top performers among JLL offices in Q1 2026. Average rents rose 1.9% and 2.7% over the quarter in Canary Wharf and Greenwich respectively, bringing annual growth to 4% across both markets. Strong demand fundamentals and
    good connectivity have underpinned rents in these areas.</p>
<p>However, properties rented in Canary Wharf in the last month have been on the market for an average of 38 days, which is 90.7% longer than a year ago. Despite the Elizabeth Line's transformative impact on connectivity and ongoing infrastructure improvements
    unlocking the area's potential, the extended marketing period reflects the broader softening in tenant demand affecting even well-connected locations this quarter. </p>
<p>Wood Green, Nine Elms and Stratford recorded modest annual growth between 2% - 3%, while the City&rsquo;s annual growth held steady at 1.1%. Within Nine Elms, mainstream locations maintained positive annual growth while prime areas saw average rents decline
    over the year, driven by fewer home movers and occupiers choosing to renew leases.</p>
<p>Finsbury Park shifted from positive annual growth of 1.8% in Q4 2025 to a contraction of 0.2% in Q1 2026, while Kew saw growth slow sharply from 2.2% to just 0.3% over the same period. More muted growth in these areas is a reflection of fewer new applicant
    registrations and increased days on market, both signaling weaker tenant demand and reduced pricing power for landlords in this location.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/29082834/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe><br />
<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2>3-Year Growth: Across all London locations, rents rose 11.8% over three years</h2>
<p>Rental trends across London over the past three and five years reveal a clear pattern &mdash;the market has been climbing steadily, but growth is now becoming more measured.</p>
<p>Three-year growth remains strong in most locations, ranging between 8%-17%, however increased level of supply has softened this growth in recent quarters. Wood Green led with the highest growth at 16.7%, followed by Greenwich at 16.0%, supported by consistent
    tenant demand. Other locations ranged from 9.6% to 13.3%, reflecting more balanced dynamics after the post-pandemic surge.</p>
<h2>5-Year Growth: Nine Elms and Canary Wharf Achieved Highest Growth<br /></h2>
<h2></h2>
<p>On average, rents have risen by 42% over the past five years, across all eight JLL London offices. Growth has ranged between 31% and 56%.</p>
<p>Nine Elms has been the strongest performer over the past five years, seeing 55.6% growth in rents. This has been driven by strong long-term demand in prime riverside areas. Within Nine Elms, SW11 Prime rental property saw rental growth shy of 70% over
    a five-year period. </p>
<p>Canary Wharf follows with 53.1% growth. Prime rental homes across Canary Wharf have benefitted from corporate tenant demand and proximity to financial services hubs, while the mainstream market benefits from strong student demand.</p>
<p>Significant five-year growth across London has been driven by a fundamental supply and demand imbalance&mdash;but here's what's changing: the pace is now easing as new supply enters the market and affordability constraints begin to limit rental increases.</p>
<h2>Market Sentiment: Momentum Remains Subdued as We Begin 2026<br /></h2>
<p>The number of new applicants registering over the last 12 months has decreased across most locations including Canary Wharf, Finsbury Park, Kew, Nine Elms, and Stratford, while remaining stable in the City, Greenwich and Wood Green. </p>
<p>The number of new landlord instructions over the last 12 months has increased in four locations including Canary Wharf, City, Greenwich, Kew, and Wood Green, remained stable in Nine Elms, and decreased in Finsbury Park and Stratford. This divergence between
    declining tenant demand and growing landlord supply suggests a shift towards a tenant-favourable market, creating increased competition among landlords and putting downward pressure on rental growth.</p>
<p>All locations reported increases in lease renewals over the past year except the City, a reasonable response to a more challenging economic environment where tenants look to avoid higher rents associated with moving property. Days on the market before
    finding a tenant have increased over the last 12 months in five locations including Canary Wharf, Finsbury Park, Greenwich, Stratford, and Wood Green and remained stable in others. </p>

JLL Rental Index – Q1 2026

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<p><strong>We had expected 2026 to usher in a new phase of the housing cycle, with higher price growth in more affordable markets in recent years giving way to stronger performance in more expensive southern regions as mortgage rates improved in the second half of the year. Early-year expectations included two further base rate cuts, and by early February best-buy mortgage rates had reached 3.5%. The delay between listing and exchange&mdash;currently averaging 200 days&mdash;would mean improvements would take time to feed through to house price indices, but we were confident that prices would rise across most UK markets this year.</strong></p>
<p>That changed at the end of February, with the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East having a significant impact on sentiment, debt costs and the outlook for many global economies, including the UK. Forecasters have downgraded their UK GDP
    projections accordingly, with the IMF now expecting growth of 0.8% this year compared to their previous forecast of 1.3%.</p>
<p>While swap rates&mdash;used as a proxy to set fixed-rate mortgages&mdash;have settled somewhat and more competitive rates have entered the market, we now think it unlikely that we will see the lower rates and improvements in market sentiment we'll need
    to support our November view on prices and rents this year.</p>
<h2>House price forecast</h2>
<p>We now expect house prices to remain broadly flat nationally in 2026, with prices forecast to end the year down 0.5%, compared with our previous +2% forecast.</p>
<p>Some more affordable markets should end the year in positive territory, but we expect growth will be lower than inflation across all UK regions this year.</p>
<p>London, where prices have fallen by an average of 3.3% in the year to February according to the Office for National Statistics, is now forecast to end the year down 2.5%, against our previous forecast of +1%. For central London is it sentiment rather
    than rates which will likely have a greater impact.</p>
<p>Our JLL Prime Central London Index (based on agent valuations and excluding new homes) saw values fall 2.2% in Q1 compared with Q4 with prices down 8.7% year on year in March. Similarly, transaction-based indices from LonRes are showing prices in the
    three months to April 2026 9.1% lower than the same period in 2025.</p>
<p>Our previous forecasts expected prices in central London would begin to recover in the latter part of the year, with values forecast to end the year flat (effectively H1 falls being cancelled out by H2 gains). However, we now expect that the improvements
    in market conditions needed to support growth in prices (remember we'd need to see growth of 2.2% for our PCL Index to end the year flat) are unlikely to materialise this year. We are therefore forecasting prices will fall 5.5% in 2026.</p>
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    <h2>Rental forecast</h2>
    <p>With fewer tenants expected to move into owner-occupation and inflation now forecast to end the year higher, we have upgraded our 2026 forecast, with rents now expected to rise 3.5% nationally, up from the 2.5% forecast in November. We anticipate
        higher rental growth in London too, with rents forecast to increase 3% this year.</p>
    <p>Challenges around rental affordability will likely constrain the prospects for more significant rental growth over the five-year period. Over the longer term, we continue to expect pressure on landlords to comply with EPC C standards by 2030 will
        fuel rental growth towards the latter part of our five-year forecast period, as properties are removed from the market either for sale or improvement.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/29071331/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
    <p>Rental growth in the five years to 2030 is now expected to total 16.5% nationally and 17.1% in London, a one to two percentage point increase compared with our previous forecast.</p>
    <h2>JLL's Residential and Living team</h2>
    <p>JLL's Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
        and student housing.</p><br />
    <p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

Residential Forecasts 2026-2030

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<article class="apartment-outlook-content" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div class="article-body"><p class="lead">JLL's inaugural Australian Apartment Market Outlook examines the key trends shaping Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane's apartment markets through H1 2026. Despite economic headwinds from rising interest rates and Federal Budget tax changes, medium-term
            fundamentals remain robust, underpinned by chronic housing undersupply, sustained population growth, and solid household income growth.</p><p>Australia's three largest capital cities experienced varying apartment price growth throughout 2025, with Brisbane leading at 16.5% annually, followed by Sydney at 4.5% and Melbourne at 2.0%. Year-to-date growth to April 2026 shows Brisbane continuing
            to outpace at 6.4%, while Sydney and Melbourne recorded more moderate gains. The Reserve Bank's cash rate increase to 4.35% in May 2026 and negative gearing reforms are expected to moderate investor demand and transaction activity in the near
            term.
        </p><p>Rental markets remain exceptionally tight across all three capitals. Brisbane recorded the lowest vacancy rate at 0.8% in April 2026, followed by Sydney at 1.3% and Melbourne at 1.5%. As economic headwinds soften sales market demand, rental markets
            could see increased pressure as potential buyers remain renters longer. Brisbane rents are forecast to grow 6.5% through 2026, with Sydney at 4.5% and Melbourne at 4.0%, driven by sustained migration and limited supply additions.</p><p>Looking ahead, Brisbane is positioned for the strongest growth through chronic demand-supply imbalances, while Melbourne is expected to benefit from improved relative affordability and constrained new supply. Sydney presents a more measured outlook
            as mature market dynamics and stretched affordability temper momentum. Prime properties are showing resilience across all three capitals, outperforming broader market trends as quality and location continue to command premium interest.</p><div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1779268653/resi/AU/Insights/2026_H1_Apartment_Market_Outlook_-_Residential.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the H1 2026 Australian Apartment Market Outlook 📊</a>
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Australian Apartment Market Outlook

JLL's inaugural Australian Apartment Market Outlook examines the key trends shaping Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane's apartment markets through H1 2026.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1779268972/resi/AU/Insights/GettyImages-1053908810.jpg

<article class="potts-point-guide-content" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div class="article-body"><p class="lead">Strong investment fundamentals are driven by exceptional location, robust rental demand from a predominantly professional renter population, outstanding educational access to prestigious schools and universities, and limited housing supply. The
            precinct benefits from spillover demand from ultra-premium neighbouring suburbs and the ongoing Kings Cross transformation. Sustained population growth and constrained development opportunities position Potts Point for continued long-term
            appreciation.
        </p><p>Download our buyer guide to access:</p><p>&bull; Premier Location Insights &ndash; Explore the interconnected harbourside enclaves of Potts Point, Rushcutters Bay, Elizabeth Bay, and Woolloomooloo, including their rich history, architectural heritage, and village atmosphere.</p><p>&bull; Market Drivers &amp; Trends &ndash; Understand what's shaping the area including exceptional amenities, rental growth dynamics, educational access, and spillover effects from surrounding premium suburbs.</p><p>&bull; Lifestyle &amp; Amenities Overview &ndash; Discover the area's acclaimed dining and nightlife scene, boutique shopping, waterfront recreation, cultural attractions, and proximity to Sydney's CBD and iconic landmarks.</p><p>&bull; Comprehensive Market Analysis &ndash; Review detailed property performance data, rental growth trends, median prices, supply constraints, and future outlook backed by JLL Research.</p><p>&bull; Local Demographic Profile &ndash; Learn who lives in the area, including education levels, professional occupations, housing characteristics, and lifestyle patterns that drive sustained demand.</p><div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm/image/upload/v1779086800/Residential%20AU/Light_Compressed_from_Digital_Potts_Point_Buyer_Guide_l1p5xb.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the Potts Point Buyer Guide 📊</a>
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Potts Point Buyer Guide

Potts Point and Rushcutters Bay form a sophisticated harbourside precinct moments from Sydney's CBD, blending rich colonial heritage with contemporary urban village charm. 

Potts Point and Rushcutters Bay form a sophisticated harbourside precinct moments from Sydney's CBD, blending rich colonial heritage with contemporary urban village charm.&nbsp;

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<article class="federal-budget-content" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div class="article-body"><p class="lead">These changes affect negative gearing provisions and capital gains tax treatment, while a new AUD 2.0 billion infrastructure investment aims to unlock up to 65,000 new homes.</p><p>From the budget date forward, the ability to offset rental property losses against other income will be removed for new investments in existing properties, with a grace period to July 2027. However, the critical carve-out for new-build dwellings
            allows investors purchasing newly constructed properties to continue accessing existing tax settings, including negative gearing and the 50% CGT discount option.</p><p>These reforms will drive substantial shifts in investor behavior. A significant proportion of new investor activity will likely target the new-build sector, particularly off-plan investment options. This pivot from existing stock to new-build
            properties may increase the supply of established dwellings entering the market, potentially reducing competitive pressure for first home buyers.</p><p>For developers, understanding and responding to the investor segment motivated by new-build tax advantages will be essential. The infrastructure funding unlocking constrained sites presents additional opportunities to bring supply to market where
            investor demand may be strongest.</p><div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1778787609/resi/AU/Insights/JLL_Residential_Insights_Federal_Budget_May_2026.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full 2026-27 Federal Budget Housing Analysis 📊</a>
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The 2026/27 Budget Creates New Pathways for Property Investors

The 2026-27 Federal Budget reforms negative gearing and CGT while exempting new-build properties. JLL examines how AUD 2.0 billion infrastructure funding redirects investor demand.

The 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget introduces significant reforms to housing taxation policy, fundamentally shifting how residential property investment will be treated. 

The 2026-27 Australian Federal Budget introduces significant reforms to housing taxation policy, fundamentally shifting how residential property investment will be treated.&nbsp;

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<article class="rba-rate-hike-content" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div class="article-body"><p class="lead">The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the cash rate to 4.35% on May 5th, marking the third consecutive hike in 2026 and reversing all cuts made in 2025. With inflation reaching 4.6% in March&mdash;well above the RBA's 2-3% target range&mdash;this
            monetary tightening cycle presents both challenges and opportunities for Australia's residential property market.</p><p>The current rate environment will moderate near-term sales market activity as borrowing costs rise and affordability deteriorates for homeowners and first-home buyers. Variable rate mortgage holders face immediate repayment increases, while those
            on fixed rates will confront higher costs at refinancing. Market participants now forecast the cash rate peaking at 4.7% in late 2026, signaling further hikes ahead and sustained pressure on purchasing power.</p><p>However, the fundamental drivers supporting Australia's housing market remain robust. Chronic supply shortages persist across major cities, while population growth continues pressuring existing housing stock. These structural imbalances ensure
            housing demand consistently outpaces supply, providing medium to long-term support regardless of near-term monetary policy fluctuations</p><p>The real opportunity lies in rental markets, which will absorb displaced demand as prospective buyers face extended timelines to homeownership. Reduced sales market affordability drives increased rental demand, with limited supply additions ensuring
            sustained rental growth through 2026 and beyond. This dynamic creates compelling opportunities for investors, as rental yields strengthen even as sales market activity moderates. Well-positioned investment-grade properties in supply-constrained
            locations remain positioned for continued performance, with the divergence between weakening sales conditions and strengthening rental fundamentals underscoring the defensive characteristics of quality residential assets during periods of
            monetary tightening.</p><div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1774533614/resi/AU/Insights/2026.05_RBA_Announcement_Blog.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full RBA Rate Hike Housing Market Analysis 📊</a>
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Reserve Bank of Australia Raises Cash Rate to 4.35%

The RBA raised the cash rate to 4.35% on May 5, 2026, the third consecutive hike this year. While sales markets face pressure from rising borrowing costs, rental markets strengthen as displaced buyers sustain demand. JLL analyzes the investment opportunities in Australia's residential sector amid monetary tightening.

RBA raises cash rate to 4.35% in May 2026. JLL examines how rising rates moderate sales markets while creating compelling rental investment opportunities amid sustained housing demand.

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<p><strong>The Monetary Policy Committee voted at eight votes to one to hold rates at 3.75 per cent on 30 April. This follows a similar hold stance from the Fed and the ECB this week. The Bank acknowledged that the energy price shock and continued geo-political uncertainty will mean energy prices and inflation will remain higher than they expected a few months back. But the decision to move rates essentially hinged on which of three scenarios the committee thought most likely over the next two years.</strong></p><p>In Scenario A inflation rises to 3.6 per cent by the end of 2026, wages rise a little but fall back to 3 per cent by late 2027 as labour market conditions weaken. As a result, second round effects &ndash; essentially higher inflation meaning workers ask
    employers for (and get) more significant wage increases &ndash; are reduced, as a weaker jobs market limits the need to increase wages. </p><p>In Scenario B inflation follows a similar path, second round effects are still modest, but wage growth is more persistent, hitting 3.5 per cent in Q1 2027, declining gradually over the year. In Scenario C inflation peaks at more than 6 per cent in Q1
    2027. This triggers more significant second round effect, with wages rising and inflation remaining elevated. Following the MPC meeting most members appeared to be leaning towards Scenario B.</p><p>But there was some positive news for borrowers as even pre-MPC several larger lenders reduced their fixed rate deals as swap rates (the benchmark lenders use to price fixed-rate mortgages) stabilised after a volatile few months. Barclays re-introducing
    a sub-4 per cent two-year fix for the first time since March (albeit only for their Premier customers) with HSBC and NatWest also announcing lower rates from 30 April.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/story/3684258/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Renters&rsquo; Rights</h2><p>The first phase of the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act came into force on 1 May. Landlords who already have a written tenancy agreement in place do not need to change it or issue a new one. Instead, they will be required to provide tenants with a copy of the
    government &lsquo;Information Sheet&rsquo; on or before 31 May 2026 <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-renters-rights-act-information-sheet-2026#full-publication-update-history" target="_blank">Click here to access the Renters' Rights Act Information Sheet.</a> For new tenants landlords will need to provide a written tenancy agreement from 1 May.</p><p><strong>Changes introduced on 1 May include:</strong></p><p>Assured Periodic Tenancies introduced&ndash; Section 21 no fault evictions are now abolished, and most new and existing tenancies becoming Assured Periodic Tenancies. Tenants will be able to stay in their property for as long as they want, or until a
    landlord serves a valid section 8 notice. Tenants can end their tenancy by giving two months&rsquo; notice. Landlords retain access to specific grounds for possession when they have legitimate reasons to reclaim their property. These include persistent
    rent arrears, anti-social behaviour, or a genuine need to sell or move back in. Rent increases &ndash; limited to one a year, with landlords being required to follow a revised section 13 procedure. Notice of rent increases must be given at least two
    months before it is due to take effect. All rent increases can be challenged by tenants at the Property Tribunal. Rent in advance and bids &ndash; Properties must be advertised at a specific asking rent and offers above this amount cannot legally
    be accepted. Landlords or their agents can no longer request more than one month&rsquo;s rent in advance. Pet policies - Tenants have strengthened rights to request pets, which must be considered within 28 days. Landlords must provide a valid reason
    to refuse. Anti-discrimination policies &ndash; It is now illegal to discriminate against tenants with children or those receiving benefits. Landlords and letting agents cannot take any action to discourage or prevent these groups from renting, including
    hiding property information, refusing viewings, or denying tenancies based on having children or receiving benefits.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/28989951/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe><p>&nbsp;</p><p>If you have any questions or would like to discuss the implications of the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act as a tenant or landlord, please <a href="https://internationalresidential.jll.com.my/#contact-us">contact us.</a></p><h2><br />Prime Central London</h2><p>Prime Central London sales hit their lowest Q1 level since 2020 last quarter, with volumes down 24 per cent year-on-year as global uncertainty dampened buyer confidence. The JLL PCL index shows prices fell 2.2 per cent quarterly and 8.7 per cent annually,
    with properties under &pound;2 million hit hardest &ndash; down 9.8 per cent year-on-year as mortgage-reliant buyers feel the pinch of higher borrowing costs.</p><p>The rental market proved more resilient, with lettings up 13 per cent year-on-year as cautious buyers adopt a 'wait and see' approach. Increased stock levels &ndash; up 29 per cent &ndash; have kept rental growth flat, but the gap between asking and achieved
    rents for premium properties narrowed, suggesting competitive conditions at the top end.</p><p>Five sales over &pound;50 million this year alone (versus one in all of 2025) show the ultra-prime segment remains active. Higher stock levels across sales and lettings will likely moderate prices near-term, though strong letting activity suggests PCL's
    fundamental appeal endures. <a href="https://olmresi-my-prod.jll.com/insights/research/jll-pcl-report-q1-2026">Click here</a> to read our latest Q1 PCL report.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/28990096/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe><p>&nbsp;</p><h2>Student housing leads with record Q1</h2><p>Student housing investment topped &pound;2.2bn in Q1 &ndash; the fifth-highest quarterly total on record and a rare bright spot in an otherwise subdued start to the year for UK Living. Close to a third came from Unite's acquisition of Empiric Student
    Property, which completed in January. Student accounted for 60 per cent of the &pound;3.7bn invested in UK Living in Q1 2026, significantly above the typical 35 per cent.</p><p>Build to Rent (BTR) had a quieter quarter, though the sale of Ebb &amp; Flow in Reading became the UK's largest ever operational asset transaction. Pension Insurance Corporation paid &pound;200m for the 598-bed scheme &ndash; surpassing Greystar's Barking
    Wharf purchase as the biggest single asset deal on record.</p><p>However, it was the only major multifamily transaction, pushing total BTR volumes to &pound;736m &ndash; the lowest Q1 figure since 2017. Multifamily investment fell to &pound;257m, though single family performed better at &pound;479m, boosted by Kennedy
    Wilson and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board's &pound;300m expansion. Click the link to read more in our latest <a href="https://www.jll.com/en-uk/insights/uk-living-roundup-series" target="_blank">UK Living Roundup April 2026.</a></p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p><p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

The Residential Roundup - 1 May

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JLL PCL Report - Q1 2026

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<p><strong>Welcome news of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East has seen markets react favourably. Brent crude prices dropped to below $100 a barrel and shares in several UK and US property REITs have rallied. The outlook for the Bank Rate has also shifted, with markets now expecting a more cautious approach to rate hikes from the Bank of England this year. Forecasters, who had been predicting up to three 25bps increases in 2026 are pulling back and now expecting one. Swap rates at time of writing have also dropped, a positive sign for the fixed rate mortgage market. </strong></p>
<p><strong>But even if, as hoped, the ceasefire holds, much of the damage done to global supply chain and energy costs will take some time to unravel, with a similar impact on mortgage rates. All of which means any significant rebound in activity in the housing market may well take time to feed through. </strong></p>
<p><strong>Uncertainty hangs over the housing market</strong></p>
<p>A series of decidedly glum indicators have been released over the last week, highlighting the impact of geopolitical unrest on the UK housing market. First up Halifax, whose house price index suggested prices dipped 0.5 per cent in March compared with
    February, meaning prices were just 0.8 per cent higher than they were a year ago. </p>
<p>This was followed by the latest RICS survey, the first to fully cover the impact of Middle East conflict, which showed a drop in activity and appetite in the sales market. Needs based buyers were still looking to transact, and those with pre-March mortgage
    deals locked in were still active, but the discretionary market looked like it retreated again last month. </p>
<p>New buyer enquiries fell sharply, with the net balance declining to -39 per cent from -29 per cent in February&mdash;the weakest reading since August 2023. Agreed sales followed suit, dropping from -13 per cent to -34 per cent, also the lowest since summer
    2023. Near-term sales expectations turned markedly pessimistic at -33 per cent (from -4 per cent), whilst twelve-month outlook sentiment weakened to -1 per cent. New instructions registered a net balance of -6 per cent, indicating a marginally slower
    flow of listings. Unsold stock on agents' books rose to an average of 47 properties, up from 45 at the start of the year.</p>
<p>On pricing, near-term expectations dropped to -43 per cent from -19 per cent in the previous month indicating accelerating downward pressure anticipated over the next three months. The twelve-month outlook sits at +2 per cent, suggesting a broadly flat
    trend&mdash; but is down sharply from +43 per cent in January.</p>
<p>But while caution reigned in the sales market, tenant demand rose (+10 per cent net balance in March) alongside a continued drop in landlord instructions (remaining firmly negative at -25 per cent). Expectations for rental growth strengthened to +29 per
    cent, with agents citing persistent supply-demand imbalances and expectations that the uncertain outlook in the sales market could benefit the rental market.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776635385/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr10-Chart1.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Construction activity remains muted</strong></p>
<p>Geopolitical uncertainty also weighed heavily on the latest construction PMIs. The UK construction sector's woes deepened in March 2026, with house building bearing the brunt of the downturn, compounded by a wet first quarter that made construction even
    more challenging. Residential activity recorded the sharpest decline across all construction categories, with the index falling to 38.2&mdash;well below both commercial construction (47.1) and civil engineering (44.8). Remember, a score below 50 signals
    a contraction in activity. This marks the fifteenth consecutive month that the sector has contracted, driven by falling client confidence and a dearth of new project starts.</p>
<p>What's particularly concerning for housebuilders is the acceleration and unpredictability of build costs. Input price inflation surged to its highest level since November 2022, with nearly half of all construction firms reporting rising cost burdens.
    The outbreak of war in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains, pushing up fuel, transportation and raw material costs. International shipping delays meant that supplier delivery times rose for the first time since last summer, adding further
    pressure to already squeezed margins.</p>
<p><strong>Falling short</strong></p>
<p>The latest estimated net additions figures highlight the need for further incentives to develop. Government figures suggest 191,300 homes were completed in England between 1 April 2025 and 15 March this year. This was 17,300 short of the previous 12-month
    total. Comparing estimates on net additions with housing needs targets shows the clear need for further intervention, with net additions (the most generous measure of housing delivery) 48 per cent shy of the 370,000 annual housing need across England.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776635385/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr10-Chart2.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Housing Bank to the rescue? </strong></p>
<p>With a 180,000-home supply shortfall, debt more expensive, and viability more challenged, the launch of the National Housing Bank could not have come at a more important time. The National Housing Bank (NHB) is part of a raft of Homes England and GLA
    initiatives to promote further activity in the housing market, effectively aiming to alleviate some of the debt-based challenges faced by those delivering homes. </p>
<p>The scheme was launched with much fanfare, with a &pound;100m JV with Aviva championed as an example of how the schemes could turbocharge activity. The NHB has &pound;16 billion of debt, equity and guarantees aiming to assist in the delivery of half a
    million new homes. The bank also needs buy-in from the private sector, with an investment prospectus published to attract more than &pound;50 billion of private capital. Announced in the 2025 Spending Review, the Bank is a wholly government-owned
    subsidiary of Homes England. Its mission is to drive housing delivery and create communities, with returns only covering the cost of government borrowing. The Bank will work alongside Homes England as an independent subsidiary to provide tailored
    support packages.</p>
<p>The NHB is open to different providers from large housebuilders to SMEs. Crucially it is not limited to those operators providing affordable or build-for-sale homes, with build-to-rent and later living also able to access funds. From 1 April 2026, the
    NHB offers seven debt products:</p>
<p><strong>1-SME accelerator loans</strong> - providing site-specific lending enabling smaller developers to establish track records and scale operations. Targeted at supporting firms currently delivering up to 250 homes a year but looking to grow their
    output. </p>
<p><strong>2-Revolving credit facilities</strong> - working with commercial lenders to provide multi-site facilities and land loans, again targeted at helping SME developers expand capacity.<strong></strong></p>
<p><strong>3-Senior and mezzanine loans &ndash;</strong> targeted at mid-size developers with project-level funding, particularly for build-to-rent, later living and brownfield regeneration. Funding will sit alongside private capital to bring forward stalled
    projects.
</p>
<p><strong>4-Corporate balance sheet lending</strong> - supports housebuilders directly and sits alongside commercial lending, a key focus is supporting those specialising in Modern Methods of Construction.</p>
<p><strong>5-Lending alliances - </strong>creating platforms leveraging private sector capital to broaden the Bank's reach and scale debt finance availability to SME housebuilders.</p>
<p><strong>6-Infrastructure loans</strong> - long-term funding up to 15 years to large housebuilders and master developers for upfront infrastructure needs ranging from roads to placemaking.</p>
<p><strong>7-Low interest loans for RPs - </strong>offers below-market interest rates to Registered Providers to unlock social and affordable housing investment, addressing pressures from increased debt costs and rising capital expenditure demands.</p>
<p>Partners are urged to reach out to their regional Homes England teams with specific sites or potential opportunities. With more information on the National Housing Bank available <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/homes-england-and-national-housing-bank-investment-prospectus-2026/homes-england-and-national-housing-bank-investment-prospectus-2026-html#fnref:1">here.</a><br /></p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p>
<p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</p>

Residential Roundup - 10 April

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<article class="sa-election-content" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div class="article-body"><p class="lead">Following a successful re-election, Premier Peter Malinauskas's Labor Government has a clear mandate to execute its expanded housing strategy for South Australia. This comprehensive plan responds to the state's unprecedented economic growth and
            projected population of two million by 2031, serving as a direct invitation to the private sector to partner in building the state's future.</p><p>The government's coordinated framework tackles the housing crisis from multiple angles. On the supply front, a $1 billion Fast-Track Fund will inject capital to purchase strategic land and kick-start apartment projects, while a massive $1.5 billion
            infrastructure investment will build essential water and sewer networks. This is complemented by planning reforms designed to provide developers with greater certainty and reduce costly delays.</p><p>On the demand side, the plan stimulates key buyer groups to create a reliable customer base. A stamp duty abolition for downsizers provides a powerful incentive for older South Australians to move, unlocking larger family homes for the next generation.
            For new entrants, an expansion of HomeStart's low-deposit loans opens the door for thousands of first-home buyers, including essential workers. The innovative 2,000-home Rent-to-Own scheme creates a structured pathway to ownership, allowing
            participants to build savings while leasing at reduced rent with the purchase price locked in.</p><p>These policies create fertile ground for private investment by lowering barriers to entry and making the government an active partner in mitigating risk. For developers, projects once considered too large or financially marginal become immediately
            feasible, providing the green light for more ambitious master-planned communities and high-density urban renewal projects. The market is already responding, with apartment median sale prices showing 12.9% year-on-year growth and houses at
            10.0%.
        </p><div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1774533614/resi/AU/Insights/2026.03.25_SA_Election.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download the full SA Election Housing Investment Analysis 📊</a>
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South Australian election 2026: Unlocking housing investment

Premier Malinauskas's re-elected Labor Government has unveiled a $2.5 billion housing strategy combining infrastructure investment, planning reforms, and demand-side policies like stamp duty abolition for downsizers to unlock private investment as South Australia approaches two million residents by 2031.

Premier Malinauskas's Labor Government unveils a $2.5 billion housing strategy with infrastructure investment, planning reforms, and stamp duty abolition for downsizers as SA approaches two million residents by 2031.

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<p><strong>All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to hold rates at 3.75 per cent at the March meeting. This came as little surprise considering the many unknowns around the length and impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Just a few weeks back, following the February meeting the odds on a rate cut topped 80 per cent, with observers hinting at further downward movements in the coming months. Obviously much has changed since then.</strong></p>
<p>But with odds on a reduction in the Bank Rate falling from near certainty to less than 10 per cent in the run-up, market attention shifted to what committee members were saying rather than the decision itself. Some thought (or hoped) the committee would
    choose to &lsquo;look through&rsquo; energy cost driven inflation risk and concentrate on the ongoing weakness in the employment market. But the Bank&rsquo;s key focus &ndash; keeping inflation in check rather than focussing on growth &ndash; won
    out. </p>
<p>The Bank of England's decision to maintain its current interest rate stance reflects a broader pattern of monetary policy restraint among major central banks worldwide this week. The narrative emerging from all the Central Banks&rsquo; announcements was
    one of caution. The US Federal Reserve opted to keep rates within its existing 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent range, signalling continued caution in its approach to monetary adjustment. Canada held firm at 2.25 per cent, while both the Bank of Japan
    at 0.75 per cent and the European Central Bank at 2 per cent announced they too would be maintaining their respective rates for the time being.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634954/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar20-Chart1.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Outlook for inflation</strong></p>
<p>Maintaining its key focus on inflation, the Bank emphasised that it will be monitoring developments "extremely closely" and stands ready to act to ensure inflation returns to the 2 per cent target level. With the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) having fallen
    to 3 per cent in January, MPC forecasts back in February had anticipated inflation dropping back towards 2 per cent from as early as April, largely thanks to falls in the energy price cap. However, on Thursday, the MPC acknowledged that recent increases
    in wholesale energy costs would delay inflation's return to target, as these rises were already translating into higher fuel prices at the forecourt. The Committee now expects inflation to sit at around 3 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, a
    notable increase from the 2.1 per cent in the February forecast. </p>
<p>Looking ahead, higher wholesale gas prices are likely to feed through into a higher Ofgem energy price cap from July, which the Bank anticipates could add 0.75 percentage points to inflation over the third quarter. When combined with the prospect of firms
    passing on elevated energy costs to consumers, the MPC warned that CPI inflation could climb to as much as 3.5 per cent in the third quarter, considerably higher than the previous 2 per cent forecast.</p>
<p><strong>Employment figures</strong></p>
<p>The latest government figures revealed continued weakness in employment markets. Growth in private sector wages, excluding bonuses, was 3.3 per cent in the three months to January, below the 3.5 per cent expected by the markets. The jobless rate remained
    at 5.2 per cent, marginally lower than the 5.3 per cent forecast previously.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634954/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar20-Chart2.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Impact on mortgage rates</strong></p>
<p>With oil breaching $100 a barrel and the prospect of higher inflation for longer, swap rates (the benchmark rate for fixed rate mortgages) have risen. Markets are certainly pricing in the uncertainty &ndash; particularly in the short term, with two-year
    swaps now sitting higher than five-year. Products are being pulled, with the last of the sub 4 per cent deals now disappearing from lenders&rsquo; books. Moneyfacts data shows the average shelf-life of mortgage products fell from 33 days in early
    February to 14 in early March, the lowest for over two years.</p>
<p>Moneyfacts tracked the removal of 600 mortgage products over the past few weeks. Not great news for borrowers, but this does reflect only around 10 per cent of the overall market.&nbsp; The number of mortgage products available is still more than double
    those offered in the weeks following the 2022 mini-Budget. Average two-year fixed rates have risen from 4.84 per cent at the start of March to 5.32 per cent on the morning of the MPC meeting. </p>
<p><strong>What does this mean for the housing market? </strong></p>
<p>Uncertainty often leads to greater caution among buyers, particularly those who are less needs driven. In the short term, we expect those who have already locked in more favourable mortgage deals will be keen to push through transactions. But for those
    thinking of entering the market, heightened uncertainty alongside higher rates will likely deter some from moving. </p>
<p>Our 2026 forecast, made back in November, always predicted a stronger H2 than H1. It&rsquo;s still too early to call, and we are obviously all hoping for a swift resolution to the current conflict. But if the conflict persists, we could see a delay in
    the recovery this year. We&rsquo;re reviewing our outlook and will keep you posted once we have a clearer view.<br /></p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p>
<p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Roundup - 20 March

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<p><strong>With the government committing to one &ldquo;fiscal event&rdquo; a year, the Spring Forecast was, as expected, policy light but forecast heavy. There was some (rare) positive news for the Chancellor, with cash receipts coming in stronger than the Budget watchdog expected, rising to the tune of &pound;22bn. An increase in receipts from self-assessment tax returns (including the impact of fiscal drag pulling more taxpayers into higher bands) alongside VAT and CGT increases are helping fill the coffers. This will be welcome news for the government, particularly following the loss of the Gorton and Denton by-election, with both the Greens and Reform making significant gains.&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634617/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar6-Chart1.jpg" /></p>
<p>The outlook for UK GDP remains subdued, with the Office for Budget Responsibility downgrading their view on 2026 growth from a 1.4 per cent forecast in November to 1.1, although the outlook for 2027 and 2028 improved marginally from 1.6 per cent growth
    to 1.7. This downgrade was due, in part, to a drop in net migration, with the OBR now expecting net migration to average 235,000 a year between 2026 and 2030, 60,000 a year lower than the 295,000 it was predicting in November.</p>
<p>Unemployment is now expected to peak at 5.3 per cent this year, up from a November forecast of 4.9 per cent. Youth unemployment remains particularly challenging, with 16 per cent of 16- to 24-year-olds out of work in Q4 2025, nearing an 11-year high.
</p>
<p>Inflation is expected to fall back from 3.5 per cent in 2025 to 2.3 per cent in 2026 &ndash; down from November&rsquo;s forecast of 2.5 per cent. But as the conflict in Iran continues to escalate, the Office for Budget Responsibility&rsquo;s forecasts
    looked out of date even before they were published, with continued military action in the Middle East sending shockwaves through the markets. Airline stocks dropped by more than 10 per cent while fears over oil supply saw the share prices of BP and
    Shell spike. Oil has hit $85 a barrel but crucially remained below the $128 threshold reached following Russia&rsquo;s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Similarly, the price of liquefied natural gas, of which around 20 per cent of global supply comes out
    of Qatar, almost doubled compared with pre-conflict levels as QatarEnergy confirmed a suspension in production following an attack on its primary operational hubs.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634617/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar6-Chart2.jpg" /></p>
<p>There are many reasons aside from the fiscal to hope for a quick resolution, but fears over the impact of a drawn-out conflict on inflation remain. Expectations that we may see a further rate cut at the next MPC meeting on 19th March have all but evaporated
    - the odds on a rate cut in March slashed from north of 70 per cent last week to around 20 per cent at time of writing. </p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Housing market</strong></p>
<p>There was little in the Spring Forecast for housing, with those pinning their hopes on an outside chance that much needed buy side incentives would be announced again disappointed. Although rumours abound that the government is continuing to consult on
    how best to support first-time buyers. The OBR still expect the government&rsquo;s housebuilding aspirations are unachievable, forecasting 1.3 million homes UK wide by 2029/30, 200,000 short of the government&rsquo;s England only target. That said,
    the Spring statement adds 30,000 to the previous figures published in November. Here at JLL we&rsquo;re a little more pessimistic, with expectations of closer to 1 million homes over the forecast period. </p>
<p>House prices were expected to rise by an average of 2.5 per cent per annum over the next five years, with only a marginal 0.2 percentage point increase and another 0.1 percentage point rise expected in 2027 and 2028 over the November outlook. This is
    more pessimistic than the JLL view, with our UK forecast expecting just shy of 20 per cent increase in prices by the end of 2029 against 16.4 per cent forecast over the next five years by the OBR. </p>
<p><strong>In other news</strong></p>
<p>Houses prices edged up in February, with the Nationwide Index showing prices rising 0.3 per cent month-on-month. But with inflation at circa. 3 per cent, prices on an inflation adjusted basis fell, meaning further improvement in affordability. For rents,
    Homelet&rsquo;s reported average UK rental values rose 2 per cent in the year to February. The North East was the only English region to record above inflation increases in rents at 4.6 per cent, with rents rising in real terms in Scotland (+4.6 per
    cent) and Wales (3.1 per cent).</p>
<p>Yet despite notional increases in spending power in most markets, prospective buyers remained cautious in January. Mortgage approvals dropped below 60,000, their lowest for two years. Of course, January is never the busiest month for the mortgage markets,
    but the promise of better rates ahead, as well as continued economic uncertainty around growth and job security could well be impacting here. We&rsquo;ll need a few more months of data to tell. </p>
<p><strong>In case you missed it</strong></p>
<p>Our latest JLL Big Six Residential Development Report shows the average price of new build apartments across the six cities rose 2.4% in 2025, while rental growth slowed to 1.7%. In the build-to-rent market, total investment volumes exceeded &pound;1bn
    in 2025, 21% higher than 2024. North of the border the passing of the Scottish Housing Bill, and the exemption of BTR from future rent caps is expected to boost activity and put Scotland firmly back on investors&rsquo; radars. To download a copy of
    the report <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/article/big-six-residential-development-report-2026">click here</a>. <br /></p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p>
<p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Roundup - 6 March

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<p>The government unveiled the draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill at the end of January. This follows the adoption of the Renters' Rights Act, which ends &ldquo;no-fault&rdquo; evictions, and the ban on upwards-only rent reviews in commercial leases.
    This proposed legislation represents a significant overhaul of residential property ownership structures, with the potential to impact over five million existing leaseholders.</p>
<p>The centrepiece of these reforms is a cap on ground rents at &pound;250 annually from late 2028, dropping to a nominal peppercorn rate after 40 years. For many leaseholders currently facing escalating ground rents &ndash; particularly those trapped by
    doubling clauses &ndash; this provides substantial savings throughout their lease term as well as certainty over costs. The changes will be particularly welcomed by homeowners whose properties became difficult to mortgage or sell due to onerous ground
    rent terms.</p>
<p>The legislation also looks to abolish the controversial and widely criticised forfeiture system. Under current rules, leaseholders can lose their homes and equity over debts as low as &pound;350. The new enforcement regime introduces a structured court
    process. Where properties must be sold, leaseholders will receive any balance after landlords' claims and mortgage debts are settled.</p>
<p>However, this retrospective capping of existing contractual arrangements is a significant departure from traditional legal principles and is likely to face legal challenges from investors who have acquired ground rent income streams in the past.</p>
<h2>The End of New Leases</h2>
<p>Building on the 2022 ban on new leasehold houses and ground rent ban on new flat leases, the Bill prohibits new leasehold flats entirely. Instead, newly built residential developments will use commonhold structures, where homeowners collectively own both
    their individual properties and a proportional share in the building itself. This offers greater control to those ultimately bearing the costs.</p>
<p>However, commonhold isn't without challenges, and despite being introduced in 2002 has seen low levels of take-up. Owners will still need to grapple with collective decision-making and shared responsibilities &ndash; issues familiar to anyone involved
    in right-to-manage companies or share of freehold arrangements. Owners of commonhold properties will also be legally responsible for building safety requirements, with failure to adhere to rules opening owners up to legal action, fines or even imprisonment.
    If commonhold owners don&rsquo;t want to collectively manage their buildings, they may choose to engage a managing agent. However, management companies, used to dealing with single freeholders, may also find it more challenging and more costly to
    engage with multiple commonhold owners or committees, most of whom are unlikely to have previous property management experience. This lack of track record may also prove challenging for lenders, with newly established commonhold structures unable
    to demonstrate the managerial and financial track record larger management companies or freehold owners can offer. All of which means the success of commonhold will depend heavily on whether the updated framework addresses these practical complexities
    effectively.
</p>
<p>For developers this also represents a fundamental shift away from the traditional model of retaining or selling on freehold ownership. However, the ban includes exemptions for &lsquo;permitted leases&rsquo; which looks to include build-to-rent schemes,
    purpose-built student accommodation and social housing.</p>
<h2>Conversion of Existing Leaseholds</h2>
<p>Existing leaseholders aren't left behind. The reforms attempt to simplify conversion to commonhold, replacing the current unanimous consent requirement with a 50% threshold. Buildings will be able to maintain mixed ownership during transition periods,
    with mechanisms ensuring effective management whilst preserving rights for homeowners.</p>
<h2>Implications </h2>
<p>These changes will impact both leaseholders and those who invest, lend and develop in the sector. Freehold investors, including several pension funds, face reduced income streams, while developers lose a traditional revenue source from freehold sales,
    potentially affecting development viability.</p>
<p>For homebuyers, commonhold developments may become increasingly attractive due to enhanced transparency and owner control. But the ability to convert should prevent market segmentation between leasehold and commonhold properties.</p>
<p>For lenders, the transition period may also cause legal and valuation headaches. The removal of &ldquo;marriage value&rdquo; in lease extensions will significantly reduce the cost of extending a lease but also distorts long established and legally ratified
    approaches to valuation used to assess the differential in the value of short lease properties. This could lead to uncertainty around true value and cause issues for those looking to lend or secure finance on short lease properties.</p>
<h2>Timeline</h2>
<p>Currently in draft form, the legislation faces parliamentary scrutiny and likely legal challenges. The ground rent cap won't take effect until late 2028, providing time for market adjustment and legal resolution.</p>
<p>The transition presents challenges, particularly for existing investors, but the legislation promises greater security and control for millions of homeowners. Ultimately success will be measured by the extent to which these complex reforms deliver the
    improved homeownership experience the government promises, both for current leaseholders and future residents.</p>
<h2>JLL Research</h2>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup></p>

Implications of Leasehold Reform

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<article class="melbourne-residential-content" data-sf-ec-immutable=""><div class="article-body"><p class="lead">Melbourne's residential market is accelerating out of the pit lane with championship-winning momentum building across the city.</p><p>After years of underperformance due to heavy taxation and revised tenancy laws, Melbourne is making a strategic comeback. New investor loan commitments have surged 38% year-on-year, apartment prices are climbing 2.1% annually, and market fundamentals
            are reasserting themselves with renewed buyer confidence.</p><p>Leading forecasters predict Melbourne will see over 5% dwelling price growth year-on-year across 2026 and 2027 &ndash; the first sustained positive momentum in roughly three years. One-bedroom apartments are claiming pole position with yields
            sitting at 6.3%, offering immediate income returns while positioning for capital growth.</p><div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1772725790/resi/AU/Insights/Residential_Insight_Blog_-_Melbourne_F1.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download your complimentary Melbourne Market Insights Report 🏁</a>
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It’s Lights Out and Away We Go: How Melbourne is Making a Comeback to Pole Position

Melbourne property market comeback: 38% surge in investor loans, 2.1% apartment price growth, and forecasts of 5%+ dwelling price growth for 2026-2027. Discover why Melbourne is racing back to pole position.

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Big Six Residential Development Report 2026

The JLL Big Six Residential Development Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1772001015/resi/gb/Articles/Images/big-6.jpg

<p><strong>It&rsquo;s been quite a week (again) in Westminster, with further revelations about the former U.S. Ambassador looking at points as if they could topple Starmer. Yields on ten-year government debt rose to just shy of 4.6 per cent in response but have since settled, with the pound weakening against both the dollar and euro</strong><strong>, too. </strong></p>
<p><strong>But despite calls from Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar for the PM to stand down, the cabinet came out broadly in support. For Sarwar, the upcoming Holyrood election will be at the forefront of his mind, but for Starmer, too, the 7 May local elections remain a thorn in Labour&rsquo;s side, with the potential for &lsquo;protest&rsquo; voting to further destabilise Starmer and Labour&rsquo;s front benches. </strong></p>
<p><strong>UK economy</strong></p>
<p>Like front line politics, unpicking what&rsquo;s happening to the UK economy remains challenging. Following a surprise 0.3 per cent uptick in GDP in the three months to November, the December (Q4) figures came in at a somewhat underwhelming 0.1 per cent,
    the same as recorded in Q3. This took full-year 2025 growth to 1.3 per cent, notably above the figure most forecasters predicted earlier in the year. </p>
<p>The announcement of these results resulted in some significant political cherry-picking, with Labour citing the UK as the best-performing European G7 nation (effectively we did better than France, Germany and Italy). The Conservatives took a different
    stance, with the flatlining of GDP in the second half of the year blamed squarely at Rachel Reeves&rsquo; decision making. </p>
<p>Looking ahead, the OBR expects growth of 0.9 per cent in 2026, whereas consensus forecasts are a little higher at 1.0 per cent.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634352/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb13-Chart2.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Caution around the labour market</strong></p>
<p>The labour market has continued its gradual cooling from the post-pandemic tightness that characterised recent years. The unemployment rate remained at 5.1 per cent in the three months to November&mdash;October, the highest level since 2016 when excluding
    the pandemic disruption. But there are now 3.7 million more people in employment than when unemployment last reached this level. Job vacancies remained stable in November at 2.3 per 100 employee jobs for the fourth consecutive month, sitting modestly
    below the pre-pandemic average of 2.6.</p>
<p>The inflation picture presents a much brighter outlook than we've seen over the past two years, despite some uneven progress. Core inflationary pressures, particularly in goods, continue to subside, and slower wage growth is expected to gradually filter
    through to services inflation.</p>
<p>Most forecasters anticipate inflation will continue its downward trajectory throughout 2026, drawing closer to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target. Financial markets expect this will permit further gradual monetary easing as we move through 2026.
    The Bank of England maintained its policy rate at 3.75 per cent at its most recent meeting but signalled the possibility of additional cuts. Markets and economists are forecasting up to two further 25 basis point reductions in the year ahead.</p>
<p><strong>UK investment</strong></p>
<p>JLL data on UK real estate investment volumes (all sectors), shows volumes increased 64 per cent quarter on quarter to &pound;16.4bn in Q4, from &pound;10.0bn in Q3.&nbsp; This represented a 28 per cent increase on 2024 where volumes reached &pound;12.8bn
    in Q4. Growth also remained higher than the long-run average, at 10 per cent above the 10-year Q4 average. </p>
<p>A strong Q4 means total 2025 volumes rose to &pound;49.0bn, 27 per cent above 2024 volumes of &pound;38.7bn and 2 per cent above the 10-year average.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634352/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb13-Chart1.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Affordability at a decade high</strong></p>
<p>UK wage growth dropped to its lowest level since 2022 in the three months to November, rising 4.5 per cent year-on-year. Yet despite the recent drop in the rate of wage inflation, increases in earnings have been outpacing house prices for some time now.
    This has resulted in house price to earnings ratio dropping from a high of 6.9 times earnings in Q2 2022 to 5.6 times in Q4 2025. This means house prices, when measured as a multiple of earnings are at their most affordable for over a decade. </p>
<p>London has followed a similar trajectory. Back in 2016 average London house price hit 11.7 times earnings but almost a decade on the ratio had fallen to 8.8. The last time London had a similar ratio was back in Q4 2013. </p>
<p>The challenge more recently has been around mortgage costs, with higher rates effectively wiping out affordability advantages. But rates are improving, best-buys are under 3.6 per cent and the effective interest rate on new mortgages edged down to 4.15
    per cent in December from 4.20 per cent in the previous month.</p>
<p><strong>Housing market</strong></p>
<p>Responses to the January RICS survey point to some green shoots in the residential market this year. The 12-month view on house prices rose for the fifth consecutive month, with a net balance of +43 per cent of respondents expecting prices to be higher
    at the same point in 2027. The outlook for rental growth remains positive too, with a net balance of +28 per cent expecting near-term rental increases.</p>
<p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p>
<p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Roundup - 13 February

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<article class="prime-residential-content" data-sf-ec-immutable="">
    <div class="article-body">
        <p class="lead">The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the cash rate to 3.85% for the first time in over two years, marking a significant shift in monetary policy.</p>
        <p>This rate rise responds to inflation reaching 3.6% and will directly impact mortgage holders through higher borrowing costs. While first-home buyers may face affordability challenges, strong population growth and chronic supply shortages continue
            to support fundamental housing demand. The rental market is expected to remain resilient with continued growth potential as economic fundamentals stay robust.</p>
        <ul>
            <li>First rate rise since 2024 as inflation exceeds target range</li>
            <li>Direct impact on borrowing costs and housing affordability</li>
            <li>Rental market expected to remain resilient with continued demand</li>
            <li>Economic fundamentals support long-term growth trajectory</li>
        </ul>
        <div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1770796743/resi/AU/Insights/2026.02.04_Blog_-_RBA_Announcement.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download Full RBA Analysis Report 📊
            </a>
        </div>
    </div>
</article>
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Reserve Bank of Australia Raises Cash Rate to 3.85%

RBA raises cash rate to 3.85% - first increase in two years as inflation hits 3.6%. Expert analysis on impacts for mortgage costs, housing affordability, and rental markets. Download JLL's full residential insights report.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1770797429/resi/AU/Insights/RBA-Hero-Image.png

<p><strong>Government announcements have been coming in thick and fast this week. They&rsquo;ve confirmed the detail behind much-anticipated changes to leasehold ownership, provided clarity on decent homes, minimum energy efficiency standards, warm homes, affordable housing rent convergence and low-cost loans for housing associations. Here at JLL we&rsquo;ve been busy releasing reports of our own too, with our latest Prime Central London and Living Roundup out now. So, buckle up, take a deep breath, and we&rsquo;ll run through what we&rsquo;ve learnt in the last fortnight. </strong><strong></strong></p>
<p><strong>Leasehold reform</strong></p>
<p>The government has finally published the Draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill. Reactions differ depending on which side of the leasehold fence one sits. Owners of freeholds bought as investments (which include individuals and larger institutions)
    will be assessing the implications for income. Developers too will be keen for more clarity on the impact of commonhold structures for future development, something which we&rsquo;ll be looking into more in the coming weeks. But for individuals owning
    leasehold properties or those looking to buy the reaction remains positive. The proposed capping of annual ground rents at &pound;250 from 2028 (dropping to a peppercorn rent after 40 years) will mean existing homeowners who own properties with more
    complex ground rent structures (doubling ground rents being one of the most challenging) finding it easier to secure a mortgage or sell their homes. It also reassures prospective owners that costs will not escalate going forward, supporting increased
    activity in the market. With challenges around escalating service charges, the greater transparency a commonhold structure brings may mean common holders have more control (or at least better oversight) of fees charged too.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634116/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan30-Chart1.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Housing delivery &ndash; a mixed picture</strong></p>
<p>The government&rsquo;s commitment to 1.5 million homes appears unwavering, however 18 months from coming to power the delivery of new homes has reached near record lows. The government will welcome some positive headlines, with an 18 per cent annual increase
    in housing starts in the year to September 2025. But this isn&rsquo;t the full picture. Changes to building regulations meant starts spiked and then dropped back in Q2 2023, meaning the hike in starts comes off an abnormally low base.</p>
<p>In London Molior&rsquo;s latest release was mixed too. The number of starts totalled just over 5,500 in 2025 - it was 34,000 a decade earlier - meaning Molior&rsquo;s London starts in 2025 were just 6 per cent of London&rsquo;s 88,000 housing needs target.
    But there was a glimmer of hope, with Q4 starts rising, accounting for 41 per cent of the albeit low 2025 total.</p>
<p><strong>Affordable housing clarity</strong></p>
<p>The government has set out the detail behind rent convergence for social housing. The announcements are designed to address the difference in rents charged for some social homes and formula rents for comparable properties. This means more fairness for
    tenants who won&rsquo;t pay vastly different rates for similar homes just because they&rsquo;ve lived in a property for longer or have a different social landlord. From April 2027 affordable housing providers will be able to increase rents by &pound;1
    per week over and above CPI plus 1 per cent rising to &pound;2 per week above CPI+1 from April 2028. Rent convergence can run for up to ten years, or until they reach parity. London has the widest gap and is expected to take the longest with some
    regional markets needing only a year or so to regain lost ground. The announcements on rent convergence are seen as key in underpinning providers&rsquo; balance sheets and ensuring they have the confidence and financial ability to deliver more homes.</p>
<p>Details were also shared on the &pound;2.5bn of low-cost loans for housing associations announced at the spending review. The 25-year loans will have an interest rate of 0.1 per cent. &pound;250m will be set aside to support section 106, with the remaining
    90 per cent supporting the delivery of social housing through grant-funding.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634116/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan30-Chart2.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Living update</strong></p>
<p>A record &pound;22.8bn was invested in UK Living in 2025, with healthcare contributing more than half of the total as it ended the year with several &pound;1bn+ M&amp;A deals. Excluding healthcare, investment grew a more modest 2 per cent to &pound;10.1bn,
    rising for the second year running from the trough in 2023 (&pound;8.9bn). Single family investment overtook multifamily in 2025 with &pound;2.6bn invested, accounting for just over half of all build-to-rent investment last year. </p>
<p>The 2024/25 student data released by HESA this week gives us a glimpse at the first full year impact of restrictions on international students brought in at the start of 2024. The number of international students has fallen 10 per cent from its 2022/23
    peak, totalling 686,000 in 2024/25. Though still above the UK's (now scrapped) 600,000 target, it does represent a significant fall at a time that universities remain reliant on international tuition fees. The slowdown among international students
    resulted in a marginal 1 per cent decline in total university students. Despite a degree of uncertainty, investors were still active in the student market, with &pound;4.6bn of investment completing across the year, up 22 per cent annually. For more
    analysis on the UK living sector read Karl Tomusk&rsquo;s latest Living Roundup <a href="https://www.jll.com/en-uk/insights/uk-living-roundup-series">here.</a></p>
<p><strong>Prime Central London</strong></p>
<p>Pre-budget anxiety means drawing firm conclusions from Q4 data isn&rsquo;t advisable, but there were some glimmers of hope for a sunnier year ahead. Prices across PCL were down 7.3 per cent year-on-year in Q4, following a 1.6 per cent quarterly decline.
    But with more clarity post-Budget activity began to pick up with transactions above &pound;10 million rising by 36 per cent over the quarter, with buyers who&rsquo;d agreed prices pre-Budget gaining the confidence to exchange. Activity below &pound;2million
    was driven largely by domestic buyers, with transactions at this price point rising 7 per cent over the quarter. Activity in the &pound;2&ndash;5 million and &pound;5&ndash;10 million ranges was more subdued, likely reflecting lingering uncertainty
    earlier in the quarter around proposed tax changes. To read Meg Eglington&rsquo;s take on the Q4 PCL market <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-pcl-report-q4-2025">click here.</a><br /></p>
<p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p>
<p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Roundup - 30 January

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JLL PCL Report – Q4 2025

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<article class="prime-residential-content" data-sf-ec-immutable="">
    <div class="article-body">
        <p class="lead">Sydney's prime residential landscape is experiencing significant shifts that savvy investors and homeowners need to understand.</p>
        <p>If you're considering your next move in Sydney's most coveted markets, there are critical insider trends you need to know about. Our latest Prime Residential Drivers Report reveals the key forces shaping Sydney's most desirable postcodes &ndash;
            and what it means for your property decisions.</p>
        <div class="cta-section"><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1768991977/resi/AU/Insights/Images/Insider_Tips_-_Sydney_Prime_Residential_Market_Shift.pdf" class="cta-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Download your complimentary Prime Residential Drivers Report 📊
            </a>
        </div>
    </div>
</article>
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Insider Tips: Sydney Prime Residential Market Shift

Discover the key shifts in Sydney's prime residential market. Get insider analysis on the most coveted postcodes and what drives property decisions in luxury markets.

Sydney Prime Residential Market: Critical Trends & Insider Analysis 2026

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<p>Hopes of a more settled geopolitical landscape in 2026 have been quickly dashed, with Trump&rsquo;s intervention in Venezuela, little progress on a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, the return of transatlantic friction over Greenland and distressing scenes
    in Iran leaving questions over the prospect of further US intervention.</p>
<p>But there are signs that economically 2026 could prove more settled. The Budget is behind us and the promise of one fiscal event a year &ndash; and hopefully lessons learnt from the pre-Budget paralysis last year &ndash; mean we could see more activity
    this year. The Bank of England has hinted they expect inflation will drop back to levels at or close to their 2 per cent target by the end of 2026, with two or more rate cuts this year looking more likely.<strong> </strong></p>
<p>There was some promising news on GDP in November, recovering from an October contraction of 0.1 per cent to grow 0.3 per cent in November, a five-month high. It isn&rsquo;t always prudent to read too much into monthly GDP numbers, but the increase in
    November does point to modest growth rather than a contraction once the Q4 figures surface. The reopening of the Jaguar Land Rover production line supported the November figure (and fed into the negativity in October), with car manufacturing rising
    26 per cent month-on-month. </p>
<p>For the housing market 2026 also brings some much-needed clarity on acronyms, with the NPPF, SAHP, RRA and rent settlement now published or expected to be released in Q1. We&rsquo;re forecasting a slow recovery rather than a step change in prices and
    activity this year. Our latest forecasts, published in early December, point to marginal growth of 2 per cent in prices and 2.5 per cent in rents this year. If you missed them, you can read more on our latest forecasts<strong> </strong><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/residential-forecasts-2025">here.</a><strong></strong></p>
<p><strong>Market activity</strong></p>
<p>UK property transactions reached 100,350 in November, up 7.7 per cent annually and 1.3 per cent month-on-month, according to HMRC data. This sits just 1 per cent below the long-term pre-pandemic average (2013-2019). Rightmove&rsquo;s full year figures
    show sales agreed in 2025 were 3 per cent higher than 2024. But with transactions taking more than six months to progress from listing to exchange the slowdown in activity observed later in 2025 will take months to show up in the figures, meaning
    we&rsquo;re in for a few months of underwhelming figures, even if the market is feeling a little rosier.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1768581921/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan16-Chart2.jpg" /><br /></p>
<p>The RICS survey provides a timelier picture of market sentiment. It has been decidedly gloomy of late, with uncertainty pre-Budget weighing heavily on respondents&rsquo; market outlook. But their December survey, the first post-Budget, looks more promising.
    December isn&rsquo;t the best month to take the temperature of the housing market, with little change in new instructions reported by RICS and the near-term outlook for prices remaining broadly flat, but a higher number of respondents are now expecting
    prices to rise in 2026. A net balance of +35 per cent of respondents expect an increase, up from +16 in October and +24 in November. Sales expectations rose too, with a net balance of 34 per cent of respondent expecting activity to increase in 2026,
    the highest reading since December 2024. Rents are expected to rise in 2026 too, with respondents to the survey forecasting growth of 3 per cent nationally in 2026. <br /></p>
<p><strong>Prices</strong></p>
<p>Budget jitters acted as a dampener on house prices in the final months of 2025. Both Halifax and Nationwide reported UK house prices declining month-on-month in December, with Halifax showing a 0.6 per cent decrease and Nationwide recording a 0.4 per
    cent drop. Despite these monthly declines, annual price growth remained marginally positive at 0.3 per cent (Halifax) and 0.6 per cent (Nationwide) for the year ending December 2025. At a country and regional level prices in Q4 2025 rose in all areas
    bar East Anglia, where prices fell 0.8 per cent annually. Growth in the price of houses continues to outpace flats, with semi-detached houses recording 2.4 per cent growth annually, UK wide, compared with a 0.9 per cent fall for flats.<strong></strong></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1768581921/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan16-Chart1.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Rents</strong></p>
<p>The rental market followed typical seasonal patterns, with the final months traditionally bringing higher stock levels and modest rental adjustments. December 2025 saw average rents for new lets fall 1.5 per cent month-on-month, resulting in annual growth
    of 2.6 per cent for the year according to Homelet. The North East was the strongest English region at 6.6 per cent, Scotland recorded a solid 4.0 per cent annual increase, with Wales achieving 2.9 per cent growth over the same period.</p>
<p><strong>Mortgage market</strong></p>
<p>UK mortgage approvals dipped in November, with 0.7 per cent fewer approvals month-on-month and 6.7 per cent fewer annually. But considering this coincided with the run up to the Budget, falls were more marginal than some predicted and the 12-month rolling
    rate remains resilient.</p>
<p>This points to increased activity this year, supported by an increase in more competitive mortgage rates reaching the market. The effective interest rate on newly drawn mortgages averaged 4.20 per cent in November, down from 4.53 per cent in February,
    with best-buy fixed rates falling to 3.5 per cent in mid-January.<br /></p>
<p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p>
<h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 16 January

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in the first Residential Roundup of 2026 

<strong>Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in the first Residential Roundup of 2026&nbsp;</strong>

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Renters' Rights Act

The Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. It is now widely expected to come into effect from this<em> </em>spring onwards.&nbsp;

The Renters’ Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons.

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<p>With the October Budget behind us, the outlook for both prices and rents remains positive. The government is forging ahead with its plan to deliver more homes, but it will take some time before we see any real impact on overall supply. Increased government
    borrowing means the latest inflation forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility have come in higher than expected, which could throw some cold water on more bullish forecasts for mortgage rates.&nbsp; But the direction of travel appears to
    be the same, even if it may take a little longer to get there. </p>
<p>Lack of supply and more competitive mortgage rates are expected to underpin growth in prices over the next five years. Rental growth is expected to exceed inflation and wages over the five-year forecast period, but an increase in activity in the sales
    market means rental growth is expected to lag price growth, with rents forecast to be 17% higher by the end of 2029. </p>
<h2><strong>2024 outlook</strong></h2>
<p>Back in May we forecast house prices nationally would rise by 2% in 2024. This was underpinned by a continued resilience and lack of distress in the sales market, with prices holding firm despite the challenge of higher rates and uncertainties in the
    run up to the election (which at that point we were thinking would take place in the autumn). An early election was seen as a positive for the market, but Budget jitters meant much of that hoped for momentum was lost (or at least delayed).</p>
<p>Looking at the latest government figures (year to August 2024) shows prices have risen 2.8% annually, with more recent Nationwide figures for the year to October at 2.4%. There are obviously a few months to go but we expect year end growth to come in
    marginally above our 2% forecast. Scotland and the north of England are expected to see higher growth. Higher mortgage rates remained most challenging for more expensive markets in London and southern England, with growth in these regions, as forecast,
    lower than other areas of the UK this year.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730756189/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Forecast-Chart-1.jpg" /></p>
<p>We forecast UK rents would end 2024 4.5% higher annually.&nbsp; The ONS Private Rents Index, which we benchmark against, is still showing growth of 8.4% in the year to August, but new lets data from Homelet data shows average rents were 4.3% higher in
    September 2024 than they were a year earlier. We expect ONS figures could end the year higher than our 4.5% forecast, but the significant imbalance between tenant demand and supply has levelled off in recent months so we expect some further heat will
    come out of the rental market as we move into 2025. </p>
<h2><strong>Lessons from the (recent) past</strong></h2>
<p>Looking back over the last 25 years, price growth (taken here in five-year chunks to mirror our five-year outlook) shows three distinct periods for growth. Before the Global Financial Crisis five-year growth of 60% or more was the norm. But the period
    of re-correction that followed saw much of this froth removed from the market as five-year growth fell back to single digits or low teens to compensate for the significant tightening of the debt markets. </p>
<p>But for the last decade, despite significant variation in mortgage rates and a global pandemic, house prices rises over a five-year term have remained remarkably consistent. Peaking in 2017 at 33% but otherwise ranging from 21% to 27%.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730756189/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Forecast-Chart-2.jpg" /></p>
<h2><strong>UK Economy</strong></h2>
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    <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left">
        <tbody>
            <tr class="red">
                <th scope="col"></th>
                <th scope="col">2025</th>
                <th scope="col">2026</th>
                <th scope="col">2027</th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2029</th>
                <th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>CPI (OBR)</td>
                <td>2.6</td>
                <td>2.3</td>
                <td>2.1</td>
                <td>2.1</td>
                <td>2.0</td>
                <td>11.6</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Wages (OE)</td>
                <td>2.7</td>
                <td>2.4</td>
                <td>2.5</td>
                <td>2.8</td>
                <td>2.9</td>
                <td>14.0</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>UK GDP (OBR)</td>
                <td>2</td>
                <td>1.8</td>
                <td>1.5</td>
                <td>1.5</td>
                <td>1.6</td>
                <td>8.7</td>
            </tr>
        </tbody>
    </table>
</div>
<p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research using Office of Budget Responsibility, Oxford Economics</p>
<p style="text-align:left;">The outlook for economic growth remains muted, with inflation expected to sit a little higher than the Bank of England&rsquo;s 2% target until 2029.&nbsp; But the Bank of England rate cutting cycle is expected to continue and assuming swap rates settle
    post Budget and the US election we&rsquo;ll likely see mortgage rates fall back too - if not quite as quickly as we had hoped. </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">Consensus forecasts suggest rate cuts will run through until the end of 2026, with mortgage rates expected to become more competitive over this period. Following a similar trend to 2024 we anticipate lower value markets will benefit first.&nbsp; Activity
    will be driven by first time buyers, with home movers following once rates become more attractive. Higher value markets in London and the south are expected to see stronger growth in the second half of our five-year forecast period.</p>
<h2><strong>Market activity</strong></h2>
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    <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left">
        <tbody>
            <tr class="red">
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable"></th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2024</th>
                <th scope="col">2025</th>
                <th scope="col">2026</th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2027</th>
                <th scope="col">2028</th>
                <th scope="col">2029</th>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Housing Starts</td>
                <td>135,000</td>
                <td>157,000</td>
                <td>179,000</td>
                <td>199,000</td>
                <td>224,000</td>
                <td>244,000</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Transactions</td>
                <td>1.0m</td>
                <td>1.2m</td>
                <td>1.3m</td>
                <td>1.3m</td>
                <td>1.3m</td>
                <td>1.4m</td>
            </tr>
        </tbody>
    </table>
</div>
<p>Source: JLL Research, Experian</p>
<p>Committing to build 1.5 million homes over the course of this parliament, the government has set itself an ambitious target.&nbsp; But ramping up delivery without any demand side stimulus will be a real challenge. Current supply side plans have started
    to put the building blocks in place to ramp up delivery but increasing delivery in a meaningful way with current planning, labour force, and supply chain constraints won&rsquo;t be a quick fix. JLL forecast new housing starts across the UK will total
    1 million homes between 2025 and 2029.&nbsp; Conversions of existing stock (currently accounting for around one in ten net additions) are expected to rise too, so we&rsquo;ve allowed (possibly sightly ambitiously) for 200,000 in the next five years
    taking us to a forecast of 1.2 million homes.<br /></p>
<h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>Sales price forecasts</strong></h2>
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center">
    <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left">
        <tbody>
            <tr class="red">
                <th scope="col">Sales price growth (% pa)</th>
                <th scope="col">2025</th>
                <th scope="col">2026</th>
                <th scope="col">2027</th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th>
                <th scope="col">2029</th>
                <th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th>
                <th scope="col">Average pa 2025-29</th>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>UK</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
                <td>4.5</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>3.0</td>
                <td>19.9</td>
                <td>3.7</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Greater London</td>
                <td>2.5</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>5.0</td>
                <td>5.0</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
                <td>21.6</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
            </tr>
        </tbody>
    </table>
</div>
<p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research </p>
<p>A new government with ambitious plans for housebuilding and more comfortable with a higher tax environment, particularly for wealthier households, could mean future growth prospects differ from the recent past. But neither of the these seem a sufficient
    departure from the current trend to meaningfully change the path of growth over the coming five-year period (2025-2029). </p>
<p>We do expect higher rates (even if they fall back from current levels) will limit growth prospects, meaning our 2025-2029 forecasts sit at the lower end of the recent five year averages. </p>
<p>We expect growth of 19.9% nationally 2025-2029. London house prices are expected to increase by 21.6% over the same period, underpinned by a lack of new homes reaching the market for sale. We expect lower value markets to see stronger growth towards the
    beginning of our five-year forecast period, with more expensive markets outperforming once the rate cutting cycle continues into 2026 and 2027.&nbsp; <br /></p>
<h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>Rental forecasts</strong><strong></strong></h2>
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    <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left">
        <tbody>
            <tr class="red">
                <th scope="col">Rental growth (% pa)</th>
                <th scope="col">2025</th>
                <th scope="col">2026</th>
                <th scope="col">2027</th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th>
                <th scope="col">2029</th>
                <th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th>
                <th scope="col">Average pa 2025-29</th>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>UK</td>
                <td>3.0</td>
                <td>2.5</td>
                <td>3.0</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
                <td>17.1</td>
                <td>3.2</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Greater London</td>
                <td>2.5</td>
                <td>3.0</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
                <td>18.2</td>
                <td>3.4</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>UK BTR</td>
                <td>3.0</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>4.5</td>
                <td>4.5</td>
                <td>20.5</td>
                <td>3.8</td>
            </tr>
        </tbody>
    </table>
</div>
<p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">In the five years to September 2024 rents rose nationally by 27%. But the rapid rise in rents in the last three years isn&rsquo;t reflective of the long-term trend.&nbsp; Five-year growth figures in early 2020 sat at around 12%, when rents broadly tracked
    wage growth. </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">The supply demand imbalance which has in part driven rent rises (wage growth and inflation also contributed) is now becoming more balanced, but a lack of new stock entering the market means we anticipate rental growth will exceed wage growth and inflation
    over the next five years. </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">The October Budget did little to change our view.&nbsp; Capital Gains Tax for residential property remained the same, meaning exit costs didn&rsquo;t rise, but entry costs did.&nbsp; Landlords looking to purchase homes now having to pay an additional
    2% stamp duty over the previous already elevated bill. We expect this will mean more traditional buy-to-let landlords will leave the market than enter over the next five years. </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">But activity in the sales market is expected to increase too, likely meaning an increase in tenants moving across into owner occupation, alleviating some demand side pressures in the short term.&nbsp; </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">JLL forecast UK rents will rise 17% over the next five years, with rental growth in the London expected to total 18% over the same period.</p>
<h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>What to watch</strong></h2>
<ul>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>EPC C by 2030</strong> &ndash; Around half of all privately rented homes nationally are EPC D or below.&nbsp; As we move closer to the 2030 deadline, we expect some landlords will offload less efficient stock or remove properties from the
        market to retrofit to meet the new standard. Expect rents to rise in the run up as stock levels fall. For sales, landlords selling properties could bring more lower value homes to the market impacting average prices.<br /></li>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Renters Right Bill</strong> &ndash; Current proposals include the provision for tenants to challenge market busting rental increases. Our forecast for lower annual increases will help cushion the impact here but may limit the potential for
        growth in some markets, particularly if the courts are overwhelmed with applicants. Landlords concerned around the impact of the bill could also chose to exit the market, particularly as the sales market improves.<br /></li>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Buyer incentives</strong> &ndash; With the stamp duty threshold returning to its previous &pound;300,000 level for first time buyers next spring there was surprisingly little in the budget to incentivise buyers.&nbsp; However, there was reference
        to Phase 2 of the Spending Review in Q2 2025, so we could see further incentives or concessions introduced then.<br /></li>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Rates &ndash; </strong>A more rapid fall in mortgage rates could mean higher value markets see stronger growth earlier.<br /><strong></strong></li>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Housebuilding &ndash; </strong>The government has ambitious plans for new homes.&nbsp; We do expect activity to increase but still assume starts will lag the 1.5 million target. Our current forecast accounts for stock scarcity in the new homes
        market towards the start of the five-year period with new development activity not expected to be sufficiently high to have any negative impact on prices.<br /></li>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>International buyers and prime London &ndash;</strong> Changes to non-dom rules and increases in SDLT on additional properties mean higher costs for overseas buyers. But a lack of stock, particularly of new homes, means those who are in the
        market may find choice scarce and competition for the best stock remains strong.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>

JLL Residential Forecast 2025-2029

<strong>Houses prices expected to rise by 20% in the next five years as lower mortgage rates bring buyers back to the market. Rental growth slows from recent highs.</strong>

Houses prices expected to rise by 20% in the next five years as lower mortgage rates bring buyers back to the market. Rental growth slows from recent highs.

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<p>The announcement on additional borrowing had already unsettled investors in the run up to the budget, driving government borrowing costs to a five-month high.&nbsp; But leaks and briefings on some key policies pre-Budget appear to have had the desired
    effect meaning we&rsquo;re still below post mini-budget levels.</p>
<p>For housing there was little evidence of some of the much-speculated changes we heard rumour of in the run up. Some will see this as a missed opportunity.&nbsp; But this is far from the worst-case scenario many had feared. And clarification on government
    plans, or at least an end to pre-budget speculation, should bring more prospective buyers back to the market.</p>
<p>After all, the housing market looks to be in decent shape.&nbsp; Mortgage approval figures in September were at their highest for more than two years, with lower rates bringing more prospective buyers back to the market.&nbsp; Prices are edging up in
    response and activity across the market is recovering, too.</p>
<p><strong>So what was in the budget for housing? </strong></p>
<h2><strong>UK economy on the path to recovery</strong></h2>
<p>The latest figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggest the UK economy will grow by 1.1% this year and by 2.0% in 2025 in real terms. Inflation (CPI) is expected to sit marginally above the 2% target each year until 2029. </p>
<h2><strong>Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT)</strong></h2>
<p>Changes to stamp duty rules mean those purchasing properties in addition to their main residence (buy-to-let and second homes) will now pay a 5% rather than 3% surcharge. Adding &pound;10,000 to the stamp duty bill for a &pound;500,000 home. </p>
<p>The single rate of SDLT charged on the purchase of dwellings costing &pound;500,000 or more by corporate bodies will also rise from 15% to 17%. </p>
<p>Increases in rates were not necessarily viewed as a significant revenue raiser (an extra &pound;400 million by 2029/30) but would rather level the playing field between first time buyers and investors. But extra stamp duty for additional properties was
    not accompanied by an increase in incentives for first time buyers, with nothing in the budget on the first time buyer zero rate thresholds, which are due to drop back from &pound;425,000 to &pound;300,000 in April 2025. Instead, the government has
    committed to consult the industry on extending the mortgage guarantee scheme, effectively a 5% deposit scheme for first time buyers. News on that is promised in Phase 2 of the Spending Review next Spring.</p>
<h2><strong>Capital Gains Tax (CGT)</strong></h2>
<p>Tax on gains for residential property were left at their current level of 18% for lower rate and 24% for higher rate tax payers. Disposal of other assets, including shares, was normalised with residential property at 24%. With suggestions that &lsquo;normalisation&rsquo;
    could have been imposed with income tax rates, this should add some comfort to those in the sector. &nbsp;</p>
<h2><strong>Affordable housing</strong></h2>
<p>The government reaffirmed its commitment to deliver more affordable homes.&nbsp; A &pound;500million top up was promised for the Affordable Homes Programme and a consultation for an ongoing five-year rent settlement at CPI+1 (guaranteeing the rent cap
    on the amount providers can charge) was announced.&nbsp; Those wanting clarity on future grant investment will need to wait until the Spending Review in Q2 next year.</p>
<h2><strong>Right to Buy</strong></h2>
<p>Discounts for those purchasing through Right to Buy scheme will be reduced and councils in England will be able to keep all the receipts from sales to deliver new homes. This will need further investment to stem the loss of social housing through the
    scheme, with the latest annual figures showing 3,046 homes started using Right to Buy receipts versus 6,275 sold. </p>
<h2><strong>Inheritance tax (IHT)</strong></h2>
<p>The Chancellor announced current inheritance tax thresholds will be frozen until 2030, two years ahead of plans pre-budget. This means individuals can continue to leave &pound;325,000 free of tax, rising to &pound;500,000 if leaving your home to your
    children. Couples can inherit each other&rsquo;s allowance, meaning if you tick all the boxes &pound;1million can be left free of IHT. </p>
<p>But new rules will bring previously exempt assets into play, meaning pensions, which had been IHT exempt, will fall within the totals from April 2027. Owners of agricultural and business property, again previously able to benefit from exemptions, will
    from April 2026 need to consider their liabilities over certain thresholds, although allowances will mean an effective rate of 20% rather than 40%. </p>
<h2><strong>Housing supply</strong></h2>
<p>We&rsquo;ve already heard from the government on its plans for delivering more homes, so perhaps a lack of detail within the budget was to be expected. The government committed &pound;5bn to their housing building programme in 2025/26 and repeated its
    commitment to provide 300 new planners (effectively less than one per authority), but the new planning framework (NPPF) due at the end of the year is expected to fill in some further gaps here. </p>
<h2><strong>Non-doms</strong></h2>
<p>As expected, the government announced it will end current non-domiciled tax rules from April 2025 and introduce a new residence-based system. For those looking to bring assets into the UK, the government will extend the temporary repatriation facility
    from two to three years. This isn&rsquo;t new, and follows similar plans announced under the Conservatives. The budget confirmed that only gains made after April 2017 will be considered as part of the new proposals, but the door is still open for
    government to bring worldwide assets within the scope of UK inheritance tax.</p>
<h2><strong>What we missed</strong></h2>
<p>With the government having already announced plans to reinstate ambitious housing targets post-election we had hoped the budget would include some news on stimulus for demand. Yet incentives for home purchase, changes to stamp duty land tax (aside from
    the increase for additional properties) and the reintroduction of Multiple Dwellings Relief were conspicuous in their absence this time around. </p>
<p>More positive news on the UK economy and further interest rate cuts expected before the end of the year will likely support house price growth. But while we acknowledge increasing demand when supply remains low could challenge affordability further, the
    government needs to reassure developers and investors that there will be a market for a higher number of new homes they&rsquo;ve committed to deliver.&nbsp;</p>

Residential Roundup – Budget Special

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn &ndash; read Marcus Dixon&rsquo;s overview of what was included for housing, in this week&rsquo;s Residential Roundup.

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra £40bn – read Marcus Dixon’s overview of what was included for housing, in this week’s Residential Roundup.

<strong>The first Labour Budget in 14 years was never going to please everyone. This was a tax raising Budget, with the Chancellor&rsquo;s plans expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn. Employers will be shouldering much of the financial responsibility, with funding public services core to Labours plans.</strong>

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<p>But as the removal vans manoeuvre into No. 10, many in the industry will be thinking about the housing market and what the incoming Labour government will bring. Of course, housing was high on the agenda in the run up to the election, but the vagaries
    of the manifesto will now need to make way for greater clarity. <strong></strong></p>
<p>The new Prime Minister had previously committed to turbocharging the housing market from &ldquo;day one&rdquo;. Realistically, we might be waiting a few days longer to find out Sir Keir&rsquo;s plans. But those close to the top have signalled an announcement
    could be a matter of a few weeks rather than a few months away. </p>
<p>They&rsquo;ll need to pull their socks up as building 1.5 million homes over the next parliament will be a Herculean task. The main plans touted so far have been a recruitment drive for planners, with the intention to recruit 300 additional planning officers
    to ease bottlenecks and get Britain building. Undoubtedly a recognition of the challenges in the planning process, in practice this is the equivalent of less than one planner per planning authority and may not be the game changer we really need (a
    step in the right direction though). </p>
<p>The term grey belt is also likely to enter the vernacular as Labour attempt to make developing on the greenbelt more palatable (their landslide victory and corresponding majority will help here).</p>
<p>Plans are afoot, too, for encouraging first-time buyer activity through further promotion of a mortgage guarantee scheme. However, the temporary increase in the first-time buyers stamp duty threshold (from &pound;300k to &pound;425k) won&rsquo;t be extended
    under Labour &ndash; although this mostly affects higher value markets.&nbsp; </p>
<p>Before we delve too deeply into what-ifs we&rsquo;ll need to wait and see what emerges in the coming weeks. Until then, let&rsquo;s look at what the new government are inheriting:</p>
<h2><strong>The economy</strong></h2>
<p>Whisper it quietly, but things might not be quite as bad as we thought. The new Labour government aren&rsquo;t inheriting an economy in rude health, but quarterly GDP growth for Q1 was revised up in June to 0.7% (from 0.6%), putting GDP 0.3% higher than
    it was a year earlier in Q1. </p>
<p>With growth revised up, expectations of economic growth at sub 1% in 2024 may be looking conservative. Oxford Economics expect 0.9% and consensus forecasters 0.5% this year, but we could well see these figures creep up as we move through the summer. </p>
<p>Despite CPI hitting the 2% target rate, stubborn services inflation has thrown some cold water on the prospect of multiple rate cuts this year.&nbsp; But we still expect the bank rate will be cut before the year end, meaning more favourable mortgage rates,
    which are already starting to creep into the market, continue to emerge in the second half of the year.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1720173441/resi/gb/Articles/Images/JLL-house-prices-labour.png" />
<h2><strong>House prices</strong></h2>
<p>House prices edged up in June, 0.2% higher month-on-month and 1.5% higher than they were at the same point a year ago. The latest figures from Nationwide show London was the only region in southern England where prices have risen in the last 12 months,
    up 1.6%. East Anglia saw the most significant annual fall at -1.8% with the North West and Northern Ireland both recording annual increases of 4.1% in Q2 2024. </p>
<p>House prices have risen 59% since Labour were last in power back in 2010. They are up 68% since they last won an election back in 2005 and up 353% since the last won an election in opposition back in 1997. In 14 years under the Conservatives (2010 to
    2024) prices have risen by 57%, versus 191% in the 13 years under Labour (1997-2010)<br /></p>
<h2><strong>Activity</strong></h2>
<p>Mortgage approvals for house purchase continue to hover around the 60,000 mark, around 10,000 (or 19%) higher than they were a year ago. Despite rising off a low base, activity remains around 15% down on long-run norms. </p>
<p>The number of transactions has risen too so far this year.&nbsp; The latest May figures show an estimated 91,660 sales, 24% (or almost 18,000) higher than volumes in May last year and just 2% shy of the 2015 to 2019 average.</p>
<p>The latest S&amp;P Global Construction Purchasing Managers&rsquo; Index (PMI) was released the day we went to the polls. The UK construction sector remained in growth territory for the fourth consecutive month in June, albeit dipping slightly month-on-month.
    Growth was led by the commercial sector, with housing, which had moved into positive territory for the first time in 19 months in May, dropping back in June.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1720173441/resi/gb/Articles/Images/JLL-rental-growth-price-growth.png" />
<h2><strong>Rents</strong></h2>
<p>As we enter the busy summer market for lettings, prices achieved on new lets, according to the latest June figures from Homelet, were up 6.9% nationally. London and the South West were the only regions where rents fell month-on-month but were still 4.9%
    and 3.4% higher annually. </p>
<p>Rental growth rates in London have finally dropped below wage growth, meaning the rent to affordability ratio dropped from 40% in January to 38.9% in May, but it remains 10 percentage points higher than it was a decade ago. </p>
<p>Results for the latest JLL Buyer and Tenant Survey highlight the challenge facing tenants, with half of the tenants surveyed spending more than 50% of their take home pay on rent each month, up from 45% in 2022.&nbsp; To read more from the latest JLL
    Buyer and Tenant Survey <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/buyers-and-tenants-survey-2024">click here.</a></p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1720173440/resi/gb/Articles/Images/JLL-rent-to-income-ratio.png" />

Residential Roundup 5 July

Residential-Roundup-5-July2[2]

The Labour Party have won more than 400 seats, giving them a comfortable majority in the 2024 general election.

<strong>The Labour Party have won more than 400 seats, giving them a comfortable majority in the 2024 general election.</strong>

Residential-Roundup-5-July2[1]

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