<p>With the October Budget behind us, the outlook for both prices and rents remains positive. The government is forging ahead with its plan to deliver more homes, but it will take some time before we see any real impact on overall supply. Increased government
    borrowing means the latest inflation forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility have come in higher than expected, which could throw some cold water on more bullish forecasts for mortgage rates.&nbsp; But the direction of travel appears to
    be the same, even if it may take a little longer to get there. </p>
<p>Lack of supply and more competitive mortgage rates are expected to underpin growth in prices over the next five years. Rental growth is expected to exceed inflation and wages over the five-year forecast period, but an increase in activity in the sales
    market means rental growth is expected to lag price growth, with rents forecast to be 17% higher by the end of 2029. </p>
<h2><strong>2024 outlook</strong></h2>
<p>Back in May we forecast house prices nationally would rise by 2% in 2024. This was underpinned by a continued resilience and lack of distress in the sales market, with prices holding firm despite the challenge of higher rates and uncertainties in the
    run up to the election (which at that point we were thinking would take place in the autumn). An early election was seen as a positive for the market, but Budget jitters meant much of that hoped for momentum was lost (or at least delayed).</p>
<p>Looking at the latest government figures (year to August 2024) shows prices have risen 2.8% annually, with more recent Nationwide figures for the year to October at 2.4%. There are obviously a few months to go but we expect year end growth to come in
    marginally above our 2% forecast. Scotland and the north of England are expected to see higher growth. Higher mortgage rates remained most challenging for more expensive markets in London and southern England, with growth in these regions, as forecast,
    lower than other areas of the UK this year.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730756189/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Forecast-Chart-1.jpg" /></p>
<p>We forecast UK rents would end 2024 4.5% higher annually.&nbsp; The ONS Private Rents Index, which we benchmark against, is still showing growth of 8.4% in the year to August, but new lets data from Homelet data shows average rents were 4.3% higher in
    September 2024 than they were a year earlier. We expect ONS figures could end the year higher than our 4.5% forecast, but the significant imbalance between tenant demand and supply has levelled off in recent months so we expect some further heat will
    come out of the rental market as we move into 2025. </p>
<h2><strong>Lessons from the (recent) past</strong></h2>
<p>Looking back over the last 25 years, price growth (taken here in five-year chunks to mirror our five-year outlook) shows three distinct periods for growth. Before the Global Financial Crisis five-year growth of 60% or more was the norm. But the period
    of re-correction that followed saw much of this froth removed from the market as five-year growth fell back to single digits or low teens to compensate for the significant tightening of the debt markets. </p>
<p>But for the last decade, despite significant variation in mortgage rates and a global pandemic, house prices rises over a five-year term have remained remarkably consistent. Peaking in 2017 at 33% but otherwise ranging from 21% to 27%.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730756189/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Forecast-Chart-2.jpg" /></p>
<h2><strong>UK Economy</strong></h2>
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    <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left">
        <tbody>
            <tr class="red">
                <th scope="col"></th>
                <th scope="col">2025</th>
                <th scope="col">2026</th>
                <th scope="col">2027</th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2029</th>
                <th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>CPI (OBR)</td>
                <td>2.6</td>
                <td>2.3</td>
                <td>2.1</td>
                <td>2.1</td>
                <td>2.0</td>
                <td>11.6</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Wages (OE)</td>
                <td>2.7</td>
                <td>2.4</td>
                <td>2.5</td>
                <td>2.8</td>
                <td>2.9</td>
                <td>14.0</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>UK GDP (OBR)</td>
                <td>2</td>
                <td>1.8</td>
                <td>1.5</td>
                <td>1.5</td>
                <td>1.6</td>
                <td>8.7</td>
            </tr>
        </tbody>
    </table>
</div>
<p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research using Office of Budget Responsibility, Oxford Economics</p>
<p style="text-align:left;">The outlook for economic growth remains muted, with inflation expected to sit a little higher than the Bank of England&rsquo;s 2% target until 2029.&nbsp; But the Bank of England rate cutting cycle is expected to continue and assuming swap rates settle
    post Budget and the US election we&rsquo;ll likely see mortgage rates fall back too - if not quite as quickly as we had hoped. </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">Consensus forecasts suggest rate cuts will run through until the end of 2026, with mortgage rates expected to become more competitive over this period. Following a similar trend to 2024 we anticipate lower value markets will benefit first.&nbsp; Activity
    will be driven by first time buyers, with home movers following once rates become more attractive. Higher value markets in London and the south are expected to see stronger growth in the second half of our five-year forecast period.</p>
<h2><strong>Market activity</strong></h2>
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        <tbody>
            <tr class="red">
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable"></th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2024</th>
                <th scope="col">2025</th>
                <th scope="col">2026</th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2027</th>
                <th scope="col">2028</th>
                <th scope="col">2029</th>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Housing Starts</td>
                <td>135,000</td>
                <td>157,000</td>
                <td>179,000</td>
                <td>199,000</td>
                <td>224,000</td>
                <td>244,000</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Transactions</td>
                <td>1.0m</td>
                <td>1.2m</td>
                <td>1.3m</td>
                <td>1.3m</td>
                <td>1.3m</td>
                <td>1.4m</td>
            </tr>
        </tbody>
    </table>
</div>
<p>Source: JLL Research, Experian</p>
<p>Committing to build 1.5 million homes over the course of this parliament, the government has set itself an ambitious target.&nbsp; But ramping up delivery without any demand side stimulus will be a real challenge. Current supply side plans have started
    to put the building blocks in place to ramp up delivery but increasing delivery in a meaningful way with current planning, labour force, and supply chain constraints won&rsquo;t be a quick fix. JLL forecast new housing starts across the UK will total
    1 million homes between 2025 and 2029.&nbsp; Conversions of existing stock (currently accounting for around one in ten net additions) are expected to rise too, so we&rsquo;ve allowed (possibly sightly ambitiously) for 200,000 in the next five years
    taking us to a forecast of 1.2 million homes.<br /></p>
<h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>Sales price forecasts</strong></h2>
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        <tbody>
            <tr class="red">
                <th scope="col">Sales price growth (% pa)</th>
                <th scope="col">2025</th>
                <th scope="col">2026</th>
                <th scope="col">2027</th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th>
                <th scope="col">2029</th>
                <th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th>
                <th scope="col">Average pa 2025-29</th>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>UK</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
                <td>4.5</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>3.0</td>
                <td>19.9</td>
                <td>3.7</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Greater London</td>
                <td>2.5</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>5.0</td>
                <td>5.0</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
                <td>21.6</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
            </tr>
        </tbody>
    </table>
</div>
<p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research </p>
<p>A new government with ambitious plans for housebuilding and more comfortable with a higher tax environment, particularly for wealthier households, could mean future growth prospects differ from the recent past. But neither of the these seem a sufficient
    departure from the current trend to meaningfully change the path of growth over the coming five-year period (2025-2029). </p>
<p>We do expect higher rates (even if they fall back from current levels) will limit growth prospects, meaning our 2025-2029 forecasts sit at the lower end of the recent five year averages. </p>
<p>We expect growth of 19.9% nationally 2025-2029. London house prices are expected to increase by 21.6% over the same period, underpinned by a lack of new homes reaching the market for sale. We expect lower value markets to see stronger growth towards the
    beginning of our five-year forecast period, with more expensive markets outperforming once the rate cutting cycle continues into 2026 and 2027.&nbsp; <br /></p>
<h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>Rental forecasts</strong><strong></strong></h2>
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        <tbody>
            <tr class="red">
                <th scope="col">Rental growth (% pa)</th>
                <th scope="col">2025</th>
                <th scope="col">2026</th>
                <th scope="col">2027</th>
                <th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th>
                <th scope="col">2029</th>
                <th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th>
                <th scope="col">Average pa 2025-29</th>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>UK</td>
                <td>3.0</td>
                <td>2.5</td>
                <td>3.0</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
                <td>17.1</td>
                <td>3.2</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Greater London</td>
                <td>2.5</td>
                <td>3.0</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
                <td>4.0</td>
                <td>18.2</td>
                <td>3.4</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>UK BTR</td>
                <td>3.0</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>3.5</td>
                <td>4.5</td>
                <td>4.5</td>
                <td>20.5</td>
                <td>3.8</td>
            </tr>
        </tbody>
    </table>
</div>
<p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">In the five years to September 2024 rents rose nationally by 27%. But the rapid rise in rents in the last three years isn&rsquo;t reflective of the long-term trend.&nbsp; Five-year growth figures in early 2020 sat at around 12%, when rents broadly tracked
    wage growth. </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">The supply demand imbalance which has in part driven rent rises (wage growth and inflation also contributed) is now becoming more balanced, but a lack of new stock entering the market means we anticipate rental growth will exceed wage growth and inflation
    over the next five years. </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">The October Budget did little to change our view.&nbsp; Capital Gains Tax for residential property remained the same, meaning exit costs didn&rsquo;t rise, but entry costs did.&nbsp; Landlords looking to purchase homes now having to pay an additional
    2% stamp duty over the previous already elevated bill. We expect this will mean more traditional buy-to-let landlords will leave the market than enter over the next five years. </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">But activity in the sales market is expected to increase too, likely meaning an increase in tenants moving across into owner occupation, alleviating some demand side pressures in the short term.&nbsp; </p>
<p style="text-align:left;">JLL forecast UK rents will rise 17% over the next five years, with rental growth in the London expected to total 18% over the same period.</p>
<h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>What to watch</strong></h2>
<ul>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>EPC C by 2030</strong> &ndash; Around half of all privately rented homes nationally are EPC D or below.&nbsp; As we move closer to the 2030 deadline, we expect some landlords will offload less efficient stock or remove properties from the
        market to retrofit to meet the new standard. Expect rents to rise in the run up as stock levels fall. For sales, landlords selling properties could bring more lower value homes to the market impacting average prices.<br /></li>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Renters Right Bill</strong> &ndash; Current proposals include the provision for tenants to challenge market busting rental increases. Our forecast for lower annual increases will help cushion the impact here but may limit the potential for
        growth in some markets, particularly if the courts are overwhelmed with applicants. Landlords concerned around the impact of the bill could also chose to exit the market, particularly as the sales market improves.<br /></li>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Buyer incentives</strong> &ndash; With the stamp duty threshold returning to its previous &pound;300,000 level for first time buyers next spring there was surprisingly little in the budget to incentivise buyers.&nbsp; However, there was reference
        to Phase 2 of the Spending Review in Q2 2025, so we could see further incentives or concessions introduced then.<br /></li>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Rates &ndash; </strong>A more rapid fall in mortgage rates could mean higher value markets see stronger growth earlier.<br /><strong></strong></li>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Housebuilding &ndash; </strong>The government has ambitious plans for new homes.&nbsp; We do expect activity to increase but still assume starts will lag the 1.5 million target. Our current forecast accounts for stock scarcity in the new homes
        market towards the start of the five-year period with new development activity not expected to be sufficiently high to have any negative impact on prices.<br /></li>
    <li style="text-align:left;"><strong>International buyers and prime London &ndash;</strong> Changes to non-dom rules and increases in SDLT on additional properties mean higher costs for overseas buyers. But a lack of stock, particularly of new homes, means those who are in the
        market may find choice scarce and competition for the best stock remains strong.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>

JLL Residential Forecast 2025-2029

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<strong>Houses prices expected to rise by 20% in the next five years as lower mortgage rates bring buyers back to the market. Rental growth slows from recent highs.</strong>

Houses prices expected to rise by 20% in the next five years as lower mortgage rates bring buyers back to the market. Rental growth slows from recent highs.

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<p>The announcement on additional borrowing had already unsettled investors in the run up to the budget, driving government borrowing costs to a five-month high.&nbsp; But leaks and briefings on some key policies pre-Budget appear to have had the desired
    effect meaning we&rsquo;re still below post mini-budget levels.</p>
<p>For housing there was little evidence of some of the much-speculated changes we heard rumour of in the run up. Some will see this as a missed opportunity.&nbsp; But this is far from the worst-case scenario many had feared. And clarification on government
    plans, or at least an end to pre-budget speculation, should bring more prospective buyers back to the market.</p>
<p>After all, the housing market looks to be in decent shape.&nbsp; Mortgage approval figures in September were at their highest for more than two years, with lower rates bringing more prospective buyers back to the market.&nbsp; Prices are edging up in
    response and activity across the market is recovering, too.</p>
<p><strong>So what was in the budget for housing? </strong></p>
<h2><strong>UK economy on the path to recovery</strong></h2>
<p>The latest figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggest the UK economy will grow by 1.1% this year and by 2.0% in 2025 in real terms. Inflation (CPI) is expected to sit marginally above the 2% target each year until 2029. </p>
<h2><strong>Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT)</strong></h2>
<p>Changes to stamp duty rules mean those purchasing properties in addition to their main residence (buy-to-let and second homes) will now pay a 5% rather than 3% surcharge. Adding &pound;10,000 to the stamp duty bill for a &pound;500,000 home. </p>
<p>The single rate of SDLT charged on the purchase of dwellings costing &pound;500,000 or more by corporate bodies will also rise from 15% to 17%. </p>
<p>Increases in rates were not necessarily viewed as a significant revenue raiser (an extra &pound;400 million by 2029/30) but would rather level the playing field between first time buyers and investors. But extra stamp duty for additional properties was
    not accompanied by an increase in incentives for first time buyers, with nothing in the budget on the first time buyer zero rate thresholds, which are due to drop back from &pound;425,000 to &pound;300,000 in April 2025. Instead, the government has
    committed to consult the industry on extending the mortgage guarantee scheme, effectively a 5% deposit scheme for first time buyers. News on that is promised in Phase 2 of the Spending Review next Spring.</p>
<h2><strong>Capital Gains Tax (CGT)</strong></h2>
<p>Tax on gains for residential property were left at their current level of 18% for lower rate and 24% for higher rate tax payers. Disposal of other assets, including shares, was normalised with residential property at 24%. With suggestions that &lsquo;normalisation&rsquo;
    could have been imposed with income tax rates, this should add some comfort to those in the sector. &nbsp;</p>
<h2><strong>Affordable housing</strong></h2>
<p>The government reaffirmed its commitment to deliver more affordable homes.&nbsp; A &pound;500million top up was promised for the Affordable Homes Programme and a consultation for an ongoing five-year rent settlement at CPI+1 (guaranteeing the rent cap
    on the amount providers can charge) was announced.&nbsp; Those wanting clarity on future grant investment will need to wait until the Spending Review in Q2 next year.</p>
<h2><strong>Right to Buy</strong></h2>
<p>Discounts for those purchasing through Right to Buy scheme will be reduced and councils in England will be able to keep all the receipts from sales to deliver new homes. This will need further investment to stem the loss of social housing through the
    scheme, with the latest annual figures showing 3,046 homes started using Right to Buy receipts versus 6,275 sold. </p>
<h2><strong>Inheritance tax (IHT)</strong></h2>
<p>The Chancellor announced current inheritance tax thresholds will be frozen until 2030, two years ahead of plans pre-budget. This means individuals can continue to leave &pound;325,000 free of tax, rising to &pound;500,000 if leaving your home to your
    children. Couples can inherit each other&rsquo;s allowance, meaning if you tick all the boxes &pound;1million can be left free of IHT. </p>
<p>But new rules will bring previously exempt assets into play, meaning pensions, which had been IHT exempt, will fall within the totals from April 2027. Owners of agricultural and business property, again previously able to benefit from exemptions, will
    from April 2026 need to consider their liabilities over certain thresholds, although allowances will mean an effective rate of 20% rather than 40%. </p>
<h2><strong>Housing supply</strong></h2>
<p>We&rsquo;ve already heard from the government on its plans for delivering more homes, so perhaps a lack of detail within the budget was to be expected. The government committed &pound;5bn to their housing building programme in 2025/26 and repeated its
    commitment to provide 300 new planners (effectively less than one per authority), but the new planning framework (NPPF) due at the end of the year is expected to fill in some further gaps here. </p>
<h2><strong>Non-doms</strong></h2>
<p>As expected, the government announced it will end current non-domiciled tax rules from April 2025 and introduce a new residence-based system. For those looking to bring assets into the UK, the government will extend the temporary repatriation facility
    from two to three years. This isn&rsquo;t new, and follows similar plans announced under the Conservatives. The budget confirmed that only gains made after April 2017 will be considered as part of the new proposals, but the door is still open for
    government to bring worldwide assets within the scope of UK inheritance tax.</p>
<h2><strong>What we missed</strong></h2>
<p>With the government having already announced plans to reinstate ambitious housing targets post-election we had hoped the budget would include some news on stimulus for demand. Yet incentives for home purchase, changes to stamp duty land tax (aside from
    the increase for additional properties) and the reintroduction of Multiple Dwellings Relief were conspicuous in their absence this time around. </p>
<p>More positive news on the UK economy and further interest rate cuts expected before the end of the year will likely support house price growth. But while we acknowledge increasing demand when supply remains low could challenge affordability further, the
    government needs to reassure developers and investors that there will be a market for a higher number of new homes they&rsquo;ve committed to deliver.&nbsp;</p>

Residential Roundup – Budget Special

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn &ndash; read Marcus Dixon&rsquo;s overview of what was included for housing, in this week&rsquo;s Residential Roundup.

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra £40bn – read Marcus Dixon’s overview of what was included for housing, in this week’s Residential Roundup.

<strong>The first Labour Budget in 14 years was never going to please everyone. This was a tax raising Budget, with the Chancellor&rsquo;s plans expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn. Employers will be shouldering much of the financial responsibility, with funding public services core to Labours plans.</strong>

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<p>But as the removal vans manoeuvre into No. 10, many in the industry will be thinking about the housing market and what the incoming Labour government will bring. Of course, housing was high on the agenda in the run up to the election, but the vagaries
    of the manifesto will now need to make way for greater clarity. <strong></strong></p>
<p>The new Prime Minister had previously committed to turbocharging the housing market from &ldquo;day one&rdquo;. Realistically, we might be waiting a few days longer to find out Sir Keir&rsquo;s plans. But those close to the top have signalled an announcement
    could be a matter of a few weeks rather than a few months away. </p>
<p>They&rsquo;ll need to pull their socks up as building 1.5 million homes over the next parliament will be a Herculean task. The main plans touted so far have been a recruitment drive for planners, with the intention to recruit 300 additional planning officers
    to ease bottlenecks and get Britain building. Undoubtedly a recognition of the challenges in the planning process, in practice this is the equivalent of less than one planner per planning authority and may not be the game changer we really need (a
    step in the right direction though). </p>
<p>The term grey belt is also likely to enter the vernacular as Labour attempt to make developing on the greenbelt more palatable (their landslide victory and corresponding majority will help here).</p>
<p>Plans are afoot, too, for encouraging first-time buyer activity through further promotion of a mortgage guarantee scheme. However, the temporary increase in the first-time buyers stamp duty threshold (from &pound;300k to &pound;425k) won&rsquo;t be extended
    under Labour &ndash; although this mostly affects higher value markets.&nbsp; </p>
<p>Before we delve too deeply into what-ifs we&rsquo;ll need to wait and see what emerges in the coming weeks. Until then, let&rsquo;s look at what the new government are inheriting:</p>
<h2><strong>The economy</strong></h2>
<p>Whisper it quietly, but things might not be quite as bad as we thought. The new Labour government aren&rsquo;t inheriting an economy in rude health, but quarterly GDP growth for Q1 was revised up in June to 0.7% (from 0.6%), putting GDP 0.3% higher than
    it was a year earlier in Q1. </p>
<p>With growth revised up, expectations of economic growth at sub 1% in 2024 may be looking conservative. Oxford Economics expect 0.9% and consensus forecasters 0.5% this year, but we could well see these figures creep up as we move through the summer. </p>
<p>Despite CPI hitting the 2% target rate, stubborn services inflation has thrown some cold water on the prospect of multiple rate cuts this year.&nbsp; But we still expect the bank rate will be cut before the year end, meaning more favourable mortgage rates,
    which are already starting to creep into the market, continue to emerge in the second half of the year.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1720173441/resi/gb/Articles/Images/JLL-house-prices-labour.png" />
<h2><strong>House prices</strong></h2>
<p>House prices edged up in June, 0.2% higher month-on-month and 1.5% higher than they were at the same point a year ago. The latest figures from Nationwide show London was the only region in southern England where prices have risen in the last 12 months,
    up 1.6%. East Anglia saw the most significant annual fall at -1.8% with the North West and Northern Ireland both recording annual increases of 4.1% in Q2 2024. </p>
<p>House prices have risen 59% since Labour were last in power back in 2010. They are up 68% since they last won an election back in 2005 and up 353% since the last won an election in opposition back in 1997. In 14 years under the Conservatives (2010 to
    2024) prices have risen by 57%, versus 191% in the 13 years under Labour (1997-2010)<br /></p>
<h2><strong>Activity</strong></h2>
<p>Mortgage approvals for house purchase continue to hover around the 60,000 mark, around 10,000 (or 19%) higher than they were a year ago. Despite rising off a low base, activity remains around 15% down on long-run norms. </p>
<p>The number of transactions has risen too so far this year.&nbsp; The latest May figures show an estimated 91,660 sales, 24% (or almost 18,000) higher than volumes in May last year and just 2% shy of the 2015 to 2019 average.</p>
<p>The latest S&amp;P Global Construction Purchasing Managers&rsquo; Index (PMI) was released the day we went to the polls. The UK construction sector remained in growth territory for the fourth consecutive month in June, albeit dipping slightly month-on-month.
    Growth was led by the commercial sector, with housing, which had moved into positive territory for the first time in 19 months in May, dropping back in June.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1720173441/resi/gb/Articles/Images/JLL-rental-growth-price-growth.png" />
<h2><strong>Rents</strong></h2>
<p>As we enter the busy summer market for lettings, prices achieved on new lets, according to the latest June figures from Homelet, were up 6.9% nationally. London and the South West were the only regions where rents fell month-on-month but were still 4.9%
    and 3.4% higher annually. </p>
<p>Rental growth rates in London have finally dropped below wage growth, meaning the rent to affordability ratio dropped from 40% in January to 38.9% in May, but it remains 10 percentage points higher than it was a decade ago. </p>
<p>Results for the latest JLL Buyer and Tenant Survey highlight the challenge facing tenants, with half of the tenants surveyed spending more than 50% of their take home pay on rent each month, up from 45% in 2022.&nbsp; To read more from the latest JLL
    Buyer and Tenant Survey <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/buyers-and-tenants-survey-2024">click here.</a></p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1720173440/resi/gb/Articles/Images/JLL-rent-to-income-ratio.png" />

Residential Roundup 5 July

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The Labour Party have won more than 400 seats, giving them a comfortable majority in the 2024 general election.

<strong>The Labour Party have won more than 400 seats, giving them a comfortable majority in the 2024 general election.</strong>

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JLL Residential Forecasts 2024-2028

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Residential Roundup

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<div><div>There are few who would question the need to deliver more homes. Research from Centre for Cities suggests Britain has a 4.3 million home deficit compared with the average European country. Meaning we would need to build almost 450,000 homes per annum over the next 25 years to satisfy future demand and address the historic deficit. At present we struggle to hit 200,000.</div><br /></div>

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Residential Roundup - 1 September

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The Residential Roundup - July

<p>Annual inflation figures for July and
August are expected to bring better news for the UK economy as the impact of
higher energy costs recedes. But higher than forecast rates reported so far
this year and rising core inflation measures are leading forecasters to
speculate that base rates will need to increase further and stay higher for
longer.<o:p></o:p></p>

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<p><strong>Buying Process</strong></p><p><strong>Buying process of resale property is very much similar to that of a new-built property.</strong></p><p><strong>The payment schedule is very straight forward, with a 5 to 10% down payment upon exchange of contract and the balance payment will be upon delivery of property. The whole transaction in general will take around 2 to 3 months.</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Documentations</strong></p><p>For the documentation process, the buyer needs to prepare an Affidavit/Declaration before the exchange of contract, as a proof of identity and for registration of ownership purposes.</p><p><a href="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1605765572/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/hkvchkmzgttb7nhafz4c.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1605068896/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/z13lmwshmkzmqx0trq5b.png" /></a></p><p><strong>Costs</strong></p><p>The estimated costs upon purchase amount to 5 to 8% of property price, inclusive of agency fee and related taxation.</p><p><a href="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1605765656/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/ufbyr6lkfiawettmsebi.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1605068914/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/osngmih1aocixawiwq8t.png" /></a></p><p><img alt="" src="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1605068815/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/k6f2gs0mvzrjwnjj8bzq.jpg" /></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Selling Process</strong></p><p><strong>To list the property on the resale market, the owner needs to exchange a brokerage agreement with an appointed agent after deciding the desired selling price.</strong></p><p><strong>Once a potential buyer has made an offer and after the buying conditions and schedule are confirmed, the contract will then be exchanged with a 5-10% down payment. To save on remittance costs, all payments from the buyer are usually kept by agent first.</strong></p><p><strong>After receiving all the payments and deducting the necessary costs, the agent will remit the net income to the seller.</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Documentations</strong></p><p>The owner shall prepare Affidavit/Declaration before the exchange of contract to prove identity. Also, the title deed of the property needs to be submitted before the delivery of the property.</p><p>If you have bought a property through JLL, the title deed would have been delivered to you after the handover. If you have problems locating the title deed, please contact your respective salesperson and we will be able to assist.</p><p><a href="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1605765706/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/fjvmtqob0lycvrzslhjs.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1605068922/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/wxljqiqnnmpjw2cfwb3e.png" /></a></p><p><strong>Cost</strong></p><p>Estimated cost for selling property can amount to 4 to 5% and exclusive of Capital Gain Tax as it can vary case by case. Capital Gain tax is imposed on the net profit that the seller makes from the transaction. The taxation rate is either 30.63% on properties
    held for less than 5 years, or 15.315% on properties held over 5 years. Please note, that the holding period starts from January 1 of the new year. Eg. If the handover of the property is September 2020, 15.315% rate will apply from January 1, 2026.</p><p><a href="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1605765734/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/nsprfch2yryt5w00uj5f.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://jll-global-gdim-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/t_ip-image-optimization/v1605068930/olmwebcontents/ip/prod/xtroajo6ao7vza9mqom5.png" /></a></p><p>For more details, kindly contact us at:</p><p>Shu Ling (REN 06614)<br />M: +6011 3301 1394 &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br />E:&nbsp;<a href="mailto:shuling.chong@jll.com" data-linkindex="2">shuling.chong@jll.com</a><br /></p><p>Luqman (REN 55922)<br />M: +6019 612 8330<br />E:&nbsp;<a href="mailto:luqman.kamaruzaman@jll.com" data-linkindex="3">luqman.kamaruzaman@jll.com</a><br /></p><p>Shahmer (REN 64871)<br />M: +6019 2170067<br />E:&nbsp;<a href="mailto:shahmer.izzat@jll.com" data-linkindex="4">shahmer.izzat@jll.com</a></p><p></p>

Guide to Buying and Selling Property in Japan: Costs, Documentations and Taxes

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<div class="row">
    <h2><strong style="background-color:initial;font-size:inherit;text-align:inherit;text-transform:inherit;word-spacing:normal;caret-color:auto;white-space:inherit;">Q2 2023 Sales Index</strong><br /></h2>
</div>
<p><strong></strong>The JLL Prime Central London Index saw prices fall for the third consecutive quarter.&nbsp; The Q2 2023 index recorded a quarterly fall of 2.1%, with prices 5.9% down compared with the same period in 2022. Prices are now 6.8% lower than
    they were when prices peaked in the third quarter last year.&nbsp; </p>
<p>The upper echelons of London&rsquo;s prime market are proving more resilient. With prices down 0.8% in the 12 months to June 2023 compared with a 6.7% fall in homes priced at under &pound;2 million (likely to be most impacted by changes in interest rates).
</p>
<p>Despite sentiment impacting prices we saw deals agreed (exchanges) increase in an admittedly slow Q1 this quarter, with a 28% increase in sales in Q2 2023.&nbsp; With volumes on par with Q2 2022 (down -1.2%). </p>
<p>Stock levels rose in Q2, with 8.3% more properties on the market than in Q2 2022 and 9.7% more than at the end of the first quarter this year. Stock on the market is now at the highest level since the end of Q2 2020. </p>
<h2><strong>Q2 2023 Lettings Index</strong></h2>
<p><strong></strong>The uncertainty which is hampering activity in the sales market often has the opposite effect on lettings. With households more likely to stay in rented for longer or choosing to rent when delaying their decision to buy. Just over half
    (51%) of JLL deals agreed in Q2 2023 were renewals, up from 45% a year ago and 24% in Q2 2021. This was the highest rate of renewal since Q2 2020. </p>
<p>The number of new lets rose this quarter compared with last, up 13%.&nbsp; But the second quarter is usually more active than the first. Comparing new lets agreed (excluding renewals) in the second quarter this year with Q2 last year showing there were
    18% fewer deals agreed, with the number agreed down 35% compared with the Q2 five-year average.</p>
<p>This quarter the JLL Prime Central London Index saw rents rise by 1.9%, with rents 5.4% higher than they were at the same point a year ago. Small flats (1 and 2 beds) saw this highest annual increase in rents at 6.7% whereas more expensive properties
    (&pound;3,000 per week or more) saw a more modest 2.9% annual increase. </p>
<p>Rents are now 26% higher for one-bedroom flats (which have seen the highest growth) than they were three years ago at the end of Q2 2020. With the JLL Prime Central London Rental Index 19.2% higher overall over the last three years.</p>
<p>For prospective tenants having to contend with low stock levels there appears to be some respite as we move into the summer. Stock levels are starting to increase, albeit off a low base. With the number of rental properties listed to let at the end of
    Q2 2023 up 13.8% on the same point in 2022. But volumes remain 55% down on levels we were seeing pre-pandemic in Q2 2019. </p>
<h2>All Source: JLL/ LonRes</h2>
<p><strong>Our JLL Prime Central London Index is based on a &lsquo;basket&rsquo; of properties, valued by JLL at the end of each quarter. </strong></p>
<p><strong>Director of UK Residential Research at JLL, Marcus Dixon, explains: </strong></p>
<p><em>&ldquo;The implications of stubborn inflation on the UK mortgage market are hampering activity in prime central London. While fewer buyers are heavily indebted - almost half buy cash - uncertainty surrounding the short-term outlook is impacting prices. </em><em></em></p>
<p><em>&ldquo;The lettings market remains competitive, stock levels have improved on their 2022 lows but there are still more prospective tenants than there are properties. This has resulted in further rent increases this quarter, with rents almost 20% higher than they were in 2020.</em><em></em></p>
<p><em>&ldquo;The lower end of the rental market continues to see a steady stream of (formerly) prospective buyers moving across into lettings. With smaller properties, mainly one- and two-bedroom flats, recording the highest annual increase in rents, while prices for similar properties are seeing more significant falls than homes in more expensive price bands.&rdquo;</em></p>

JLL – Prime Central London (PCL) Index – Q2 2023

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The recent rise in interest rates does not impact all sectors of the housing market equally.

Prime Central London (PCL) Index – Q2 2023

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<p><strong>The housing market remains more resilient than many had anticipated. The latest results from the RICS Survey show market conditions remain challenging, with agents still expecting prices to fall in the coming months in response to higher borrowing costs and uncertain market sentiment. But the outlook for the next 12 months remained more positive. </strong></p>
<p><strong>Over the longer term there is a clear commitment from both Labour and the Conservatives to support home ownership. But until we see rates top out, we expect the market to continue to tread water. This means lower levels of activity, but prices will, we expect, remain more resilient as a lack of distress and high levels of equity act as a buffer to more challenging economic conditions. </strong></p>
<h2>The economy</h2>
<p>The outlook for the UK economy is improving, with the IMF upgrading their 2023 UK forecast. Echoing recent announcements from the Bank of England the IMF no longer expects the UK will fall into recession this year, with their latest forecasts expecting
    GDP will rise in 2023. Growth is expected to be modest at +0.4% but reflects a welcome venture into positive territory following the previous -0.3% forecast in April. This improved outlook means the UK no longer sits at the bottom of the list of G7
    economies for 2023, now moving ahead of Germany.</p>
<p>But inflation is still proving stickier than many had hoped. Rates have fallen, with single digit annual increases for the first time since August 2022. It was always anticipated that rates would drop back this month, with the impact of rising energy
    costs priced into rates a year ago, but the 8.7% annual increase remained higher than the Bank of England and many forecasters had anticipated.</p>
<p>Further falls in energy costs in the coming months will help to bring inflation down further, but annual food price inflation remains at 19.1% according to the latest ONS figures.</p>
<p>Core inflation (calculating the rise in costs when energy and food, alcohol and tobacco are stripped out) rose by 6.8% in the year to April, up from 6.2% in March. With the recent increase in five-year swap rates and stubbornly high inflation meaning
    a further rise in Bank Rate at the June MPC appears more likely.</p>
<h2>New development</h2>
<p>Activity in the new homes market remains muted. While schemes on site continue to deliver homes, levels of new starts have dropped and activity in the sector has been more subdued in Q1. The National House Building Council (NHBC) reported new build completions
    fell 7% annually in Q1 2023 but the number of new homes registered to be built fell 40% to less than 28,000. This follows news that new applications in 2022 fell 14% on 2021 levels, now at their lowest level since 2006, according to figures from the
    DLUHC. In London, Molior reports constructions starts down 43% on Q1 2022.</p>
<h2>House prices</h2>
<p>Considering the considerable change that has been thrust upon the UK housing market this year it remains remarkably robust. Activity has dropped back, but we are starting to see the reaction to the initial interest rate and sentiment shock following the
    mini budget recede, as prospective buyers re- enter the market. With time on the market and mortgage approvals all starting to recover from the lows of late 2022 and early 23.</p>
<p>Low levels of unemployment, wage growth (albeit mostly below inflation), and more equity within the market all mean forced sales are less prevalent. But for those who are looking to transact in this market there does need to be some realism about prices
    and additional cost facing purchasers.</p>
<p>The latest Land Registry figures show all regions saw a monthly fall in prices in March, with prices UK wide 1.2% lower than in February, the fourth consecutive monthly fall. Prices are now 2.4% below their November peak but remain 4.1% higher than they
    were a year ago.</p>
<p>After seven consecutive monthly falls the Nationwide reported house prices rose 0.5% in April, but prices dropped back marginally in the latest May figures, down 0.1% month-on-month with prices falling annually by -3.4%, now -4% lower than they were at
    the peak last summer. The Halifax reported at -0.3% fall in April, following a rise of 0.8% the previous month, with prices on par (+0.1%) with April 2022. First time buyer activity is proving more resilient than expected, with a competitive rental
    market driving those who can to buy instead.</p>
<p>Falls in achieved prices show higher rates and rising costs are impacting the housing market, although both activity and prices appear more resilient than many had expected. The latest figures from Rightmove show asking prices rose in May, up 1.8%, higher
    than the usual 1.0% May figure.</p>
<p>Uncertainty over rates appears to have put the brakes on the recovery in mortgage approvals posted in March. Seasonally adjusted figures from the Bank of England showing the number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell by 5%, from 51,500 in March
    to 48,700 in April. The average rate on new mortgages rose to 4.46% in April, up 5 basis points on March figures. Overall borrowers repaid &pound;1.4bn more than was lent in April 2023, which aside from the pandemic was the biggest net repayment on
    record.
</p>
<h2>Rents</h2>
<p>The rental market continues to record near double digit growth in rents on new lets. The Homelet Rental Index showing annual rental growth remains strong at 9.9% across the UK in April 2023, with a current average rent of &pound;1,199, 1.3% higher than
    the March figure. London saw rents rise annually by 11.0%, with average rents on new lets exceeding &pound;2,000 per month. Scotland saw the highest annual increase, with rents on new lets rising 12.1%.</p>
<h2>Global view</h2>
<p>In the US, the Federal Reserve increased its key interest rate by 25 basis points, pushing its benchmark rate to between 5% and 5.25%. This is the tenth time rates have increased since March 2022. Rates could be topping out though with the Fed hinting
    at a pause on further rate rises when they next meet in June.</p>
<p>Singapore has announced a doubling of its Additional Buyer Stamp Duty. Overseas buyers purchasing a property in Singapore will now pay 60% tax on their purchase, with those buying using a trust will pay 65%. Permanent residents buying second homes in
    the city will also pay more.</p>
<h2>What&rsquo;s new from JLL</h2>
<p>Our latest Prime Central London report shows rents rose again in Q1 2023, but prices have dropped 4.3% compared with Q1 2022. Read more <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/prime-central-london-q1-2023">here </a></p>
<h2>JLL Research | May 2023</h2>
<p>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000. With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices
    in the UK, we support our investor, developer and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing,
    building management and sales.</p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: <sup>&copy;</sup>2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or
    warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any
    form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves
    the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup>
</p>

JLL Residential Market Update – May 2023

The housing market remains more resilient than many had anticipated. The latest results from the RICS Survey show market conditions remain challenging, with agents still expecting prices to fall in the coming months in response to higher borrowing costs and uncertain market sentiment.

The housing market remains more resilient than many had anticipated. The latest results from the RICS Survey show market conditions remain challenging, with agents still expecting prices to fall in the coming months.

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Spotlight on Cambridge

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Affordable and attractive London hotspots for First Time Buyers

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House prices have risen significantly nationally over the last three years, and it feels as if the first step onto the housing ladder has become more challenging. Despite this, the dream of owning their first home for many is not dwindling.

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Site Settings

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[max.4]
label="3 bedrooms"
value=3
[max.5]
label="4 bedrooms"
value=4
[max.6]
label="5 bedrooms"
value=5
[max.7]
label="6 bedrooms"
value=6
[max.8]
label="7 bedrooms"
value=7
[max.200]
label="8+ bedrooms"
value=8

Bedrooms

Beds

title="Property Type"
metric="propertyType"
type="select"
name="type"
placeholder="Any Type"
order=3

[[options]]
label="Any Type"
value=""
[[options]]
label="Flats"
value="flats"
[[options]]
label="Houses"
value="houses"

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type

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[[options]]
label="Short Term"
value="short-term"
[[options]]
label="Furnished"
value="furnished"
[[options]]
label="Unfurnished"
value="unfurnished"

Rent - Options

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Options

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[[options]]
label="United Kingdom"
value="United Kingdom"
[[options]]
label="Japan"
value="Japan"
[[options]]
label="UAE / Dubai"
value="United Arab Emirates"
[[options]]
label="Australia"
value="Australia"

Sale - Options

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<p>PRIVACY NOTICE</p><p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p><p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p><p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p>

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<p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>PRIVACY NOTICE</strong></p><p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p><p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p><p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

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<p><strong>PRIVACY NOTICE</strong></p><p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p><p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p><p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p>

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